New New Yorker

A new Malcolm Gladwell article in The New Yorker is always worth celebrating. This one examines the invention of the mall. Those of you too cheap to subscribe (you know who you are) and those who have a print subscription but never receive their issues until Friday (moi, par exemple) can sneak a peek online this week or wait until he archives it on his site.
The Financial Page? Also consistently educational.

Mary Poppins, The Killer, and a Ferrari 360 Modena, oh my

I posted seven DVDs for sale on Amazon.com Marketplace last night, and by this evening four of them had sold already, and for decent prices, too. Selling most books doesn't seem worthwhile considering the heavy price competition online, but DVDs retain their value like BMWs, and old Disney or Criterion DVDs that are out of print? They appreciate like Ferraris. Never, never unwrap a DVD until the day you're ready to watch it. That's the equivalent of driving the car off of the lot; the value drops off a cliff and lands on a ledge about 30 feet (read: 10 dollars) down.
The key is to anticipate the next format change (HD DVD, perhaps?) and sell off my entire DVD collection six months prior.

Big

In this interview, Lance Armstrong was asked what he though of Jan Ullrich after facing off with him at Murcia. Lance's reply?
"Big."
He goes on to add:
"But I think he looks better than he normally looks this time of year. There's no doubt that (Jan) is seven or eight kilos more than his Tour weight. He's been heavier other years. But Ullrich looks strong, is how he does look. I wouldn't say he looks fat. Jan always gets in shape for the Tour; he's always ready."
I think Lance is being diplomatic. Jan looks as if he's been living large this winter, so to speak.

Beware the cellphone company that comes bearing gifts

I recently received postcards from AT&T informing me they'd be mailing me a free cellphone, the Sony T226, to replace the Sony Ericsson T68i I've been using for over a year and a half. Very suspicious--when's the last time the phone company did anything out of kindness? Not that I love my T68i. It has certain usability problems which I've lived with b/c I purchased it with a generous rebate and because sinking money into new cellphones is a waste of money.
I knew there was a catch, though, and Engadget exposed it. The replacement phones are compatible with the newer 850 Mhz spectrum in which AT&T Wireless is building out its GSM network, and the phones they're replacing are not. Perhaps this explains all of the complaints about AT&T Wireless's coverage in the Seattle area. The Sony T226 I'm receiving shortly will be less functional than my T68i and won't offer the Bluetooth compatibility needed for my headset.
That's evil, and it means I'll have to call and use my big, mean voice on some customer service rep shortly.
We have cellphones that shoot lousy photos, offer games, surf the web, play MP3s, change channels, and yet I've still not found a cellphone/service plan combination that excels at all of the features I desire most: compact form factor, long battery life, an awesome antenna, a usable interface for storing and finding phone numbers, and an affordable nationwide calling plan. Perhaps that's why I've been such a conservative cellphone buyer. I've owned only four cellphones in my life, and two were replacements for one I lost and one I crushed in a snowboarding incident in a half-pipe. Am I jealous of those around me who flip to new phones seemingly every 8 months? A bit, though the cost that people sink into new cellphones is ridiculous (you either pay for it in the phone or, if the phone is free after rebates, in the long-term plans they lock you into).
Nokia's phones have impressed me the most, though their antennas haven't blown me away and their feature set usually lags the competition. But Nokia's on-screen interface is the most usable. Motorola has strong antennas but lousy battery life and a terrible on-screen interface. As cellphone functionality has broadened, the user interfaces have suffered. With my T68i on its last legs, though, it's time to dip back into the marketplace. I can even switch service providers with no penalty as I've been month-to-month with AT&T Wireless for quite some time now.
Has anyone had a good experience with a nationwide cellphone plan?

Martha's personal Greek tragedy

An interesting observation from Paul Elliott of the Motley Fool on Martha Stewart's guilty verdict:
The nightmare began back in Dec. 2001, when, on hearing from her broker that then-CEO Sam Waksal was selling stock (Waksal himself had heard that bad tidings were a-brewing at the FDA over cancer drug Erbitux), Stewart dumped some middling number of ImClone shares. The price? Somewhere in mid-$50s. The irony? After a harrowing ride to the single digits, ImClone closed today at around $47.50, within a hair of its 52-week highs.

Wow

Stanford pulls off another miracle over WSU on a crazy last minute scramble for a loose ball and a wild three pointer. Down 5 with 25 seconds left, it didn't look possible. The only comeback that could have topped the Cardinal victory tonight is if Omarosa ("I'm going to crush my competition and I'm going to enjoy doing it") could have avoided being fired after breaking down and then bursting into the Boardroom unannounced. Maybe she can blame her hysterics on the concussion from the piece of plaster that dropped on her head two episodes earlier.
Still, as much heat as she took, and I think she would have driven me crazy, I did read this quote in her online profile:
"The cartoon character that I most relate to is Optimus Prime from the 'The Transformers'. Optimus Prime is the leader of the Transformers and works as a powerful force of goodness, courage and wisdom in the battle against the evil Decepticons. He first tries to find peaceful solutions to conflicts, but when battle lines are drawn, he becomes a fierce warrior capable of overpowering vast enemy forces to achieve his goals."
Omarosa and Optimus: that is just perfect.
I'm fired up for the Stanford-UW men's hoops game on Saturday. Stanford will be gunning for a perfect season, and UW, second in the Pac-10, is the type of team that can give Stanford trouble with its athleticism and quickness. It may be the most important Stanford-UW men's hoops game ever, though admittedly that's not saying much. Hec Ed Pavilion is going to be rocking.
UPDATE: Hec Ed is no longer Hec Ed. It's now Bank of America Arena. It was indeed rocking, though, and the Cardinal got rocked. Ugly. That's the worst they've looked all year. I haven't seen so many airballs since the weekly pickup game at the gym. Fortunately, it was a meaningless game. All that matters is the Tourney.

Too much choice?

This engrossing article about the paralyzing powers of choice in the March 1st New Yorker came at a propitious time in my life. Actually, it's a book review of The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz rather than an article, but in this day and age, rare is the book review that doesn't aspire to be more than a review of the book itself.
The article discusses how unlimited choice can cause human suffering, and how people are not the rational utility maximizers that economists like to use in their theoretic models but rather satisficers who prefer "good enough" because it's a lot less stressful to determine "good enough" than maximum utility. The article also introduced the phenomenon named the hedonic treadmill. I can't wait to drop that one casually into conversation.
Without having read the book, I tend to agree. I've been paralyzed by a certain abundance of choice myself, and I've certainly been guilty of yearning to limit my choices to avoid having to choose ("if I just got married and had kids, I'd be locked in for the next X years of my life"). It has always felt cowardly and even unhealthy to do so, but perhaps it's a natural human instinct. Related to this is the belief, perhaps unique to my generation, that our lives can and must be qualitatively and quanititatively happier than those of our parents. Together these forces can lead to an emasculating early-thirties malaise that is rather unglamorous as far as the pantheon of malaises go, especially as compared to war, starvation, and the Bubonic Plague.
The article also reminded me that happiness is a science now, complete with its own journal. There's even a World Database of Happiness.
Perusing some of the sample articles, you'll find mentions of axioms such as the consumer's dilemma:

  • It is psychologically unhealthy and morally wrong to be pre-occupied with money and materialism.

  • Consuming is nonetheless attractive. It certainly seems as if more money and more of what money can buy would make life better.

  • In order to be part of society, we simply must have commerce with money and possessions.

An abstract of an article titled Hedonism and Happiness:
"At the national level average happiness is correlated with moral acceptance of pleasure and with active leisure. At the individual level it is similarly linked with hedonistic attitudes and also correlated with hedonistic behaviours such as frequent sex and use of stimulants. In most cases the pattern is linearly positive. The relation between happiness and consumption of stimulants follows an inverted U-curve, spoilsports and guzzlers are less happy than modest consumers.
Yet, these data cannot settle the issue, since the observed relations may be spurious or due to the effects of happiness on hedonism rather than the reverse. Even if we can prove a positive effect of (mild) hedonism on happiness, there is still the question of how that gains balances against a possible loss of health. A solution is to assess the effect of hedonistic living on the number of years lived happily."
I couldn't find any articles correlating masochism and being a Cubs fan.

Project Halo

Paul Allen's Vulcan Ventures is funding Project Halo, a competition among 3 teams to try and synthesize all modern textbook scientific knowledge into a computerized tutor. The goal of the three teams is to create in the next 30 months "a computerized tutor that's smart enough to pass college-level Advanced Placement (AP) tests in chemistry, biology and physics."
Sci-fi fiction fans will immediately think of A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer, the world's coolest Choose Your Own Adventure book/supercomputer/encyclopedia, from Neal Stephenson's classic novel The Diamond Age. While the technology is clearly quite raw, the end vision is compelling. If human knowledge could be synthesized by a computer that could then interpret requests and respond with reasoned answers based on that knowledge, education could capitalize directly on Moore's Law and Gilder's Law. Instead of trying to solve the world's education needs by educating and then distributing human teachers to every child on Earth, one could take the knowledge from the world's top educators and distribute it over a computer network to clients like computers that children could use.
The cost of training enough great teachers and motivating them to fan out to the ends of the earth is massively expensive and suffers from few economies of scale. The cost of doing so hasn't decreased with time, and it doesn't decrease with volume either. On the other hand, if some combination of software and hardware could simulate a teacher, the cost of replicating that software/hardware combo and distributing it all over the world would decrease over time. Such a program might never be a substitute for a real human teacher, but it would certainly be an improvement over no teacher at all.
It's still a pipe dream. Cracking the artifical intelligence challenge is, in my estimation, vastly more difficult than synthesizing the knowledge (we already have a crude prototype of the latter in operation today: Google + WWW). But I believe a solid prototype can be built in my lifetime, and that would be a society-changer.

Swing states

Ken sent me a link to the interactive electoral map on John Edwards's website (we'll miss ya, John, and you would've had my vote, but thanks for leaving the sweet map up). It's the best of its kind that I've seen online.
Playing with such a map really simplifies one's view of the election. If you click on the Election Trends link, you'll see all the states colored either blue, red, or yellow. Blue states voted Democratic in the last 3 presidential elections, the red states Republican. Most evidence indicates that those states aren't likely to change their colors in this next election.
That leaves the yellow, or swing states. These states have voted both Republican and Democratic in the last 3 elections (though all went Republican in 2000). Fourteen such swing states exist, and the election likely comes down to how these states vote in the next election. I'll vote Democratic again, but Washington is assuredly going to vote Democratic. The suspense and drama will lie elsewhere.
We can shorten our list of critical swing states by how narrow a margin they tipped Republican in the last election. States like Montana that overwhelmingly supported Bush in 2000 (58% to 33%) are not truly swing states. If we narrow down this list to the swing states where the margin of the popular vote was 4% or less for the Republicans in 2000, six remain (I've listed the margin of victory for Bush in 2000 in parentheses):

  • Nevada (50% to 46%)

  • Missouri (50% to 47%)

  • Ohio (50% to 46%)

  • New Hampshire (48% to 47%)

  • Tennessee (51% to 47%)

  • Florida (hmm, let's not revisit that debacle)

We can further narrow the list by focusing on those states that are worth enough electoral votes to single-handedly change the election. That eliminates New Hampshire and Nevada.
We could further cull the list by focusing on the states that are most likely to vote Kerry. That would eliminate, in my mind, Tennessee, which I doubt will elect a New Englander.
That leaves three. Come election time, the marginal value of an extra Democratic vote in Florida, Ohio, or Missouri is going to be worth a lot more than in any other states given the "winner-takes-all-delegates" rule of our presidential election game. Though we're a long way from E-Day, I'm feeling hopeful about Missouri and Florida.

Bonus

I received two unexpected checks in the mail this past week. One was a check for about $19 from Google's AdSense. It's not much when spread over the 9 months I've posted links, but it about matches my Amazon Associates commissions over a similar time period, and I've only posted the Google links on two infrequently updated pages of my site.
The other check was for $13.86 from the lawsuit against the music companies for CD minimum advertised price antitrust activity (read: the labels collaborated on price fixing), a suit brought by the Attorneys General of 43 states and 3 territories. I had filed my claim online at a website dedicated to the lawsuit.
About a year ago, I also got a modest refund on my DirecTV bill simply for filling out and returning a postcard that had been mailed to me to notify me of a class action lawsuit against DirecTV related to one of their sports packages. These class action lawsuits where I do almost nothing and money falls into my lap are the antimatter that compensate for all the rebates with the onerous redemption requirements which I forget to fulfill. If I can only qualify for more of these class action lawsuits, I may never have to work again.

And yet the Michelin guy looks so friendly

In America, when I think Michelin I think tires and that white mascot (the Michelin Man) who looks like a series of different-sized Menthos glued together like a multi-tiered wedding cake, or the corporate logo love child of the Stay-puff Marshmallow Man and the Pillsbury Doughboy.
In Europe, though, Michelin means restaurant ratings, but not the warm and fuzzy democratic ratings of America's Zagat Survey. Leave restaurant evaluations to the masses? Quelle horreur! No, we're talking elite French ratings, a la "you tink weeth a credit rating like zees you ken hav zee duck? You cannot hav zee duck." Hell, a top rating only gets you 3 stars. Bertolucci's The Dreamers alone receives 4 stars from Ebert, and it's merely filmed in France.
But what a 3 stars they are. In 2003, famed chef Bernard Loiseau committed suicide, presumably because his restaurant La C

Lance the boxer

Caught a new Nike commercial during the Chappelle Show tonight. It's linked off of the Niketown homepage. Good stuff (the commercial, and the Chappelle Show).
I was still chuckling to myself when I logged on and found an e-mail from Ken pointing to the same commercial. That puppy is going to spread quickly.
Ken also sent me this link to Ask the Whitehouse, "an online interactive forum where you can submit questions to Administration officials and friends of the White House." The host this time? Michael Waltrip, NASCAR driver. He fielded weighty questions such as:
Steve, from Dover writes:
Michael You guys are in your cars for a long time. What if you have to hit the bathroom?

Computer-aided pattern recognition

NOTE: I found this post in my draft folder. I guess I never published it. I was searching my own site using Google to try and locate the name of the program that would help predict the optimal time to buy a plane ticket (turns out it's called Hamlet). I sure could use it right now as I have to purchase plane tickets to all sorts of weddings and events these next several months. Well, this post is about a year old, but it's only midly stale. I've found week-old pizza crusts in cardboard boxes and eaten them without a second thought, so I might as well dust this one off...


Early reviews of The Passion

Early reviews of The Passion of the Christ are trickling in, and so far they're all over the map (what a surprise). American Sucker David Denby has been the harshest critic to date, while Roger Ebert gives it four stars and anoints it "the most violent film I have ever seen."
That 3-D, gold colored font used for the film title reminds me of the opening titling from The Lord of the Rings.

ROTK #2 all-time

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is now #2 all-time in worldwide box office behind the amazing anomaly that was Titanic which still nearly doubles it's closest competitor's worldwide gross. It appears that ROTK will be the second movie to crack the $1 billion mark. TTT is #5 all-time, and FOTR is #8. You can see how Peter Jackson can command a $20 million salary for King Kong.
The usual caveats apply: these figures don't adjust for inflated movie ticket prices, the increased number of screens around the world, etc., so the rankings are heavily weighted towards recent history.
UPDATE: Just saw in IMDb's studio briefing that ROTK broke the $1 billion mark this past weekend: "According to its distributor, New Line Cinema, the film's total stood at $1,005,380,412 through Sunday."

Hockey-style basketball: Grinnell College

The highest scoring men's basketball team in NCAA's Division III is a tiny, private, liberal arts college named after the town where it's located: Grinnell. The school enrolls 1,350, making up a huge part of the town's population of 9,100.
The team's scores this season resemble video game results: 135-128, 143-113, 155-138, 152-76. Remember, this is in only 40 minutes of play as compared to 60 minutes a game in the NBA. Through 22 games, Grinnell has launched 1,432 three-pointers as a team for an average of over 65 per game. Twenty-one different players have played for coach Dave Arseneault this season.
When Arseneault arrived at Grinnell in 1989, the Pioneers were coming off of their 25th straight losing season. Arseneault figured he had nothing to lose by trying something new, so he invented a new system and put it into place. How does it work?

  • The Pioneers try to get off a shot, preferably a 3-pointer, within 12 seconds of gaining possession. The system fits their personnel which consists of a lot of short sharpshooters. If the shooter misses and one of the other 4 players gets an offensive board, they try to kick it back out to the original shooter for another 3-pointer. Any shot from inside the arc is a last resort. In 1998, Pioneer Jeff Clement scored 77 points in a game, including 19 3-pointers.

  • Adopting a hockey tactic, Arseneault maintains different lineups of 5 players and substitutes entire groups in every 50 seconds. Each lineup goes all out during their time on court and then rotate out.

  • Defensively, they run a full-court 1-2-2 press to try and create turnovers.

  • Arseneault has the same five goals for his team each game, though they've grown more ambitious over the years: take 100 shots, shoot 30 times more than their opponents, make 50% of their 3 pointers, get 33% of their misses as offensive boards, and force 32 turnovers.

  • To attain the number of shots they want to take, sometimes they let the other team score easy layups.

  • Another indirect goal of the system is to tire the other team out. Most teams in college really only run 7 or 8 players deep. Using that type of rotation against Grinnell simply wears those 7 or 8 players down because of the pace. Arseneault rarely calls timeouts. In one game, a referee nearly collapsed.


This season, Grinnell is averaging 126.1 pts per game, well on their way to breaking the single season record for avg. pts. per game of 124.9, owned by, yes, Grinnell.
How offensive.