Cognitive dissonance

For someone who's a fairly staunch believer in sabermetric schools of thought (nowadays, the popular shorthand term for these is "Moneyball" thinking), to hear the manager of your favorite baseball team make statements like this produces a cognitive dissonance that is really uncomfortable. Rooting interests seem to be inherited from previous generations, or from one's childhood surroundings, rather than philosophically determined, and so I'll back Dusty just like I'll back Kerry even it's with a heavy dose of Pepto-Bismol.
Dusty resents the sniping, to no one's surprise. How often do you see a grown adult changing his stripes and assimilating new philosophies? I think he has skills outside of in-game tactical management that are hard to quantify. He seems to be a straight-shooter with his players, one who doesn't manage through the press, and his team respects him for that. No one doubts who's in charge in the Cubs dugout. But I believe that he wins in spite of his tactical weaknesses (e.g. abuse of starters, disdain for walks, strong preference for overpriced veterans at the expense of developing rookies), not because of them. I suspect the Cubs front office and most Cubs fans' love affair with Dusty is based in part on fundamental attribution error. After all, he was the beneficiary of the first full year of the Prior era, the blossoming of Zambrano, Wood's second full year removed from Tommy John, career resurrections from Grudzielanek and Karros, and the late season boost from Ramirez and Lofton.
I wish him well, but I'd sleep better at night if he'd stop with the 120+ pitch outings for the Cubs franchise arms. Successful leaders have to be willing to swallow their pride and assimilate effective new ideas.

The epitome of schadenfreude

This is a good start.

The prodigal son returns

Oh hallelujah!
UPDATE: Here's a photo of Maddux, Wood, and Prior as pitchers and catchers reported in Mesa, AZ. What's even more beautiful is that all three (four if you toss in Zambrano) are products of the Cubs farm system.

Yankees chasing Maddux, also?

Say it ain't so. The Onion article titled "Yankees Ensure 2003 Pennant By Signing Every Player in Baseball" is just one year off. Note this quote from the article:

Some 10 hours later, the final opposing player, Texas Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez, had been acquired by the Yankees, who bought out the remainder of his $252 million contract for $300 million.

I'm not sure what to call it when even the satire of the Onion fails to go far enough. The Yankees are that ridiculous.
Losing Maddux to the Yankees would be like a bad nightmare for Cubs fans still trying to forget about losing him the first time, to the Braves. He only went on to win the next 3 NL Cy Young Awards.
Maddux came out of the Cubs farm system. He deserves to win his 300th in Cubbies blue.

U.S.S. Mariner

I'm not a huge Mariners fan (those who visit regularly know I bleed Cubbies blue), but for the many of you who are, the U.S.S. Mariner should be bookmarked.

What is THG?

A budding doping scandal crossing multiple sports, involving all sorts of stars? Hmmmm.
At the heart of it is a lab in the Bay Area called BALCO (Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative). It has a wonderfully low-budget and somewhat vague website, the type which I imagine to be characteristic of suspicious, stealthy companies. Even just a partial roster of their past clients is impressive.
On topic, this month's Outside magazine features an article in which an amateur cyclist uses himself as a human guinea pig for all the big names in the performance-enhancing cupboard, from human growth hormone (HGH) to EPO to steroids. A fascinating read, mostly because the author confesses that the cocktails he injected himself with helped. He didn't use them long enough to experience any of the dangerous side effects, but one can easily understand how, in a world of A-personality athletic competitors where the slightest edge means millions of dollars and in a world where everyone seems to be trying the latest fad diet in an attempt to locate a shortcut to lose weight, the idea of taking some drugs from time to time and experiencing noticeable performance gains would be so alluring.

The nature of heartbreak

If I make a list of all the times my heart has been broken over the years, the one thing in common to all of them is that I really didn't have any control over the outcome, my perceptions to the contrary notwithstanding. When I control my own fate and the outcome is negative, my emotions are 3 parts anger, 1 part disappointment. It's on me, and it can be empowering. When I entrust my happiness to the actions or decisions of others, that is called hope, or faith, and that is the setup for heartbreak, a helpless sort of failure which is aggravating in its victimization.
Last night, after the final out, I went out and drove to McDonalds where I picked up a milkshake and fries combo at the drive-thru window. Against doctor's orders, I had solid food. Comfort food.
I knew going into the last part of the regular season that the Cubs weren't as good as some people were making them out to be, but when they made the playoffs, and when they made it past the Braves, and when especially when they went up 3 games to 1 on the Marlins, I gave myself freedom to dream for just a bit. Ah, we never learn, do we?
The Cubs were outplayed by the better team. They were outhit. Miguel Cabrera proved to be a fearless hitting prodigy, and Marlins in general took the best Cubs fastballs and breaking balls and turned them around. How many times with two strikes did Pudge or Castillo or Pierre or Cabrera fight of high 90's fastballs, fouling them off over and over, and then turn a hanging slider or mislocated fastball into a base hit? One piece of solace I take from this series is that I presciently signed Miguel Cabrera in my fantasy roster league this year for $3.00 and can renew him next year at $6.00. He's going to be a star the same way FRod blossomed into one in last year's World Series for the Angels.
Meanwhile, the Cubs hitters were all or nothing. The Cubs aren't fast, don't walk a lot, so they depend on the long ball. When they are mashing, as they did earlier in this series, it's exciting stuff, especially for the ball-hawkers on Waveland. But when they aren't hitting the ball out, they're grounding into double plays or striking out. With the exception of Lofton, the Cubs can't manufacture any runs. Ironically, coming back to the cold weather in Wrigley may have hurt the Cubbies. They hit plenty of long drives to center and right in game seven that seemed to die in the cold air.
The Cubs were outpitched. With all due respect to Mark Prior, my favorite Cub, the best pitcher in this series was Josh Beckett, who finally fulfilled all the hype he's received throughout his life. You could see his confidence grow, especially after Sosa took umbrance at a high tight fastball and Beckett came back to blow him away, hitting 100mph on one fastball. If Beckett's arm remains healthy, he's going to be a Cy Young contender. In a battle of bullpens, the Marlins' pen was deeper and more reliable. Dusty went back to the same four relievers every game (Veres, Remlinger, Farnsworth, Borowski), a decision I often agreed with, but they just weren't able to close the door the way World Series-winning bullpens have to (think of the insert-middle-reliever to Mariano Rivera bullpens of the Yankees).
The Cubs were outmanaged. Dusty Baker, never a great tactician, fell back to his habits of relying on veterans he was comfortable with, while Trader Jack McKeon, all of 76 years old, showed a willingness to put the best players out there regardless of age or experience, recognizing that in a short series you have to capture lightning in a bottle. Baker's roster construction was terrible--why carry Juan Cruz if he was never going to pitch? In Game 7, if Paul Bako had gotten on base, who would have hit for Joe Borowski? I guess Ramon Martinez, the last man on the bench. If Baker had carried Hee Seop Choi, he would have had a power-hitting lefty in reserve. Baker pinch-hit when he didn't need to (Goodwin for Miller, Simon for Karros) and if the game had gone into extra innings the Cubs would've run out of players anyway. Baker also left starters in too long, mismanaged his relievers, bunted with Grudzielanek in first innings of games which obviously wouldn't be decided by a single run...the litany of errors is too long to list. Some of this is second-guessing, of course, but when I yell at the TV for three straight hours during every Baker-managed game, I have to conclude that sometimes I'm right and he's wrong.
And the one thing which will haunt me this postseason is not the foul ball which the fan deflected before it hit Alou's glove but this: what if Baker had pulled Prior earlier in that 12-3 game, game two, instead of leaving him in for 116 pitches? If Prior had just that much more energy in game six, would he have had the location and stuff to retire Castillo and Pudge and Cabrera? Baker is undoubtedly a great manager of people, one who treats his players like men and confront them with his objections face-to-face, instead of in the press like, say, Don Baylor. One gets the sinking feeling, though, that as strong a leader as he is, he might be the worst possible manager for this Cubs franchise at this point in its history. He ran the Cubs pitching arms ragged, and even pitching coach Larry Rothschild admitted "I think that [Wood] and Mark [Prior] both ran out of gas there." Maybe you can give Baker that hint next time, Larry?
You could go on. Baker gave Veres the ball in game seven to face Alex Gonzalez, pulling Farnsworth. As Rany Jazayerli in Baseball Prospectus pointed out, Veres has a severe split, dominating left-handed hitters but murdered by and right-handed hitters for a .359 clip this year. Why not Remlinger at this point, or Borowski? When you're looking death in the face, you don't pull out your pocket knife, or even your pistol. Go to what in Doom was known as your BFG, your big f***ing gun, the biggest one you have left.
In contrast, 72 year old McKeon was willing to move Miguel Cabrera, a 20 year old rookie, all over the field, and even up into the cleanup spot! He moved Derek Lee down when he was struggling, pulled Juan Encarnacion in favor of Cabrera in right, pulled Penny in favor of Pavano. McKeon didn't leave any bullets in his chamber. I think we saw just about every Marlins starting pitcher these past two games. Some of his moves worked out, some didn't, but I always found myself thinking, "Damn, that's just what I would have done, and I wish he hadn't thought of it."
He was even willing to use Beckett in Game 7 after he'd thrown a complete game 115 pitch shutout on Sunday, and it worked in his favor. I was never so unhappy as when Beckett came in out of the bullpen in game 7, fresh off of dominating us in game 5. How, you might ask, is this different from Baker's abuse of Prior and Wood? If Beckett blows his arm out next year, maybe it won't be any. But the difference in my mind was that Beckett was left out there only as long as he looked good, while Baker left Prior and Wood out there even after they'd clearly lost their command, velocity, and location. McKeon showed a quick hook with all his pitchers, willing to rely on his intuition as to the hot hand. Who says you can't teach a 72 year old dog new tricks? Regardless of who makes it from the AL, the Marlins will be the best managed team in the World Series.
And, in the end, we were also outfielded. Cabrera played right field as well as Sosa despite playing it for the first time in his life in this series. Alou dove and caught all sorts of balls which a faster left fielder would have caught much more easily. Gonzalez booted the key grounder in game six, Paul Bako let all sorts of blockable pitches between his legs, Grudzielanek showed zero range at second base, Aramis Ramirez made every throw an adventure, and the Cubs weak throwing arms in the outfield were exploited numerous times by the speedy Fish. Even Steve Bartman, the poor guy, misplayed the foul ball which has now nearly ruined his life (if he does end up having to leave the city, then shame on Chicago, and it will be another dark blight on Cubs history).
When I diagnose things this way, clinically, I feel somewhat better. And I'll still take away happy memories from this postseason. Give the Cubs this: they overachieved and fought hard, they pulled out some amazing victories this year, and they were this close (picture me holding my index finger and thumb out, an inch of space between them) to completing their fairy tale. I haven't had this much fun watching the Cubs in a long time, screaming my lungs out everytime Kerry Wood proved he was a better hitter than either of his catchers, or Bako or Miller gunned down Pierre, or some random Cubs pinch-hitter like Goodwin or Simon or O'Leary came up with a clutch hit. The Cubs didn't choke, they were just outplayed. They have nothing to be embarrassed about.
I hope the Cubs learn from this postseason and don't overestimate their own abilities. They have significant upgrades to make if they're going to be a true World Series contender. They're dangerously close to following the footsteps of recent old and overachieving Cubs playoff teams with a second year tumble back into reality. Grudzielanek, Karros, Alou, Sosa, Miller, Bako, Gonzalez, O'Leary, Goodwin...those are all players highly highly unlikely to improve, more likely to get worse. Same goes for Alfonseca, Remlinger, Veres, Estes. The starting pitching is young and solid, but the Cubs lack positional prospects. They need to go out and build around a core of Patterson, Choi, Ramirez, Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Clement. If they recognize this and do increase their salary base next year and spend it wisely, then there's hope for a continued run of success.
There's always hope. Go Red Sox.

NLCS Game Six

After the Cubs game six loss, I felt dread, and despair. Depression? I had to call people, just to talk, like people need to do after traumatic events. All the Cubs fans I spoke to were numb, like me. And then I realized I had to call my dad, who I never really call, because I was, once again, that ten year old in 1984 crying after the Cubs NLCS Game Five loss to the Padres, trying to make sense of it all. We spoke, and he calmed me down, told me to go watch a movie, take my mind off the whole thing. He still felt good about game seven, thought Wood would seize the opportunity to be the hero in his friendly competition with Prior. I felt better after talking to him.
Later, Rich called, and Sang came down after he got home. I think both were on suicide watch. I was too dazed still to talk, and my lingering grogginess from my pain medication and anesthetic conspired with the Cubs defeat and my hunger (soups and clear juices do not satisfy; I've been constantly hungry since my surgery ended) to render me suddenly weak. Despite doctor's orders not to drive, I had to run out to the grocery store to get myself something calming. Tea, perhaps.
I ended up driving around for a while and not going to the grocery store at all, visions of grounders through Durham's legs, Gwynn's line drive taking a bad hop past Sandberg, Garvey's homer off of Lee Smith, Alan Wiggins' check-swing excuse-me hit, Will Clark reading Maddux's lips and hitting a grand slam onto Sheffield Ave., Javy Lopez's 9th inning home run off of Kevin Tapani.
Back at home, I finally had a clear head again. It wasn't that fan's fault for reaching out and deflecting the ball from Alou. Unlike game two when the fan interfered with Bako on IRod's pop-up, the fan in game six was up above Alou, a wall separating them, and Alou had to leap up and stick his glove into the stands. Any fan would have gone after the ball there and during the regular season no one would have given it a second thought (though I think Cubs fans have now been chastened for life and will never reach for a foul pop-up by an opposing player near the field of play ever again, for fear of death). Gonzalez booted the grounder. Baker left Prior in a few batters too many, and Prior threw a hanging curve that didn't snap to IRod. Lee and Mordecai murdered two hard but hittable fastballs. To blame this all on that one fan is wrong and typical of long-suffering Cubs fans' desire for a scapegoat.
Cubs fans even have a literal scapegoat in the form of a billy goat to assuage their 95 years of sorrow. But a true accounting of our past requires an honest confrontation with the truth. The Cubs haven't won a World Series since 1908 because they've just been flat out beaten by other teams. We got beat in 1945, and in 1984. And 1989, and 1998. It will take a Cubs team whose mind is free of history and its 95 years of doom and gloom to exorcise our collective demons, and even then, anything can happen in a short series.
All I can think of is that Wood will be too pumped up with adrenaline to find the strike zone, of Cabrera and Pudge catching up to Wood fastballs, of Redman taking advantage of impatient Cubs hitters with his changeup. I try to shake my negativity but my mind won't cooperate, won't stop fast-forwarding to a negative outcome to prepare itself. I hope the Cubs are stronger than I am and willing to confront all their doubts and surpass them. Part of me thinks that Kerry Wood will appreciate an opportunity to outdo Prior in their friendly competition to be the Cubs savior. I'll cling to that.
An entire nation (well, nearly an entire nation) roots for the Cubs and Red Sox today, including me (and Fox is certainly rooting for the Cubbies; having the Marlins instead of the Cubs in the World Series will cost Fox millions of viewers and lots of advertising revenue). I cut my hair, and I'm wearing the same outfit I wore when the Cubs won game five against the Braves. My body is tense and my brain is addled, perhaps from my pain medication. Last night I did laundry but forgot to put in detergent, and today I kept misplacing my cellphone.
Alan called earlier. He was worried, advised me not to be by myself tonight with all my Percocet. If the Cubbies win tonight, I won't need any of it.

NLCS Game Three

All through the playoffs, I've been an ardent supporter of the Cubs. Nothing new there; it's a lifelong condition first diagnosed when I was about 7 years old and there's no real known cure. Some years are worse than others, but I take my cocktails of Bud Light and bratwursts and beef franks and over time I've become numb to the pain.
But I haven't truly believed this entire postseason. Even in the regular season, I didn't truly believe. I've been living and dying on hope, but somewhere in the back of my head I've been cataloguing all the reasons to not believe, anticipating the worse.
The Cubs offense is inept. The Cubs have no team speed. The Cubs don't have disciplined hitters. Kerry Wood is wild. Dusty Baker has ridden his pitchers so hard that Zambrano can't get over the top of his sinker anymore and Prior is two years from arm surgery. The Cubs defense is mediocre. The bullpen isn't deep enough. Our closer is Joe Borowski, a journeyman pitcher without a dominant out pitch. The Cubs bench is weak; why Goodwin over Hee Seop Choi? And Doug Glanville? Don't we have enough light-hitting outfielders on the roster? Aramis Ramirez is frighteningly bad with the glove. Dusty is a terrible tactician.
I think this pessimism is a symptom of Cubs fever, an inevitable defense mechanism my body has triggered to protect me from further heartbreak. Red Sox fans can probably empathize.
After tonight's game, though, I'm beginning to believe. When so many things go your way...

• Light-hitting slap hitters Tom Goodwin and Doug Glanville each hit pinch-hit triples in crucial situations? What magic dust has Dusty sprinkled on them? Two pinch-hit triples in one game?


• Randall swing-at-everything Simon with a pinch-hit two-run home run? Why does anyone throw him a pitch anywhere but right at his hands, or in the dirt?


• Marlins load the bases in the bottom of the ninth. The Big Borowski is struggling, losing about one pound of body weight in sweat each minute. The waterbug Juan Pierre at third base, about 82 feet from home plate and the game winning run. And somehow we get out of it.


• Lofton takes off on a steal attempt in the top of the eleventh, and who should go to cover second base but the shortstop, Alex Gonzalez, instead of Castillo. Glanville then somehow turns around a 95mph fastball from Braden Looper and pulls it through the hole vacated by Alex Gonzalez. For some reason, Conine is playing close to the left field line and lets the ball get by him to roll to the wall. And Lofton, fast becoming my pick for Cubs post-season MVP, trots home.


• Aramis Ramirez boots Derek Lee's grounder but is given a gift by Luis Castillo's temporary meantal blackout.


• Kerry Wood struggles all game with his control. The SI cover jinx is breathing down his neck. Somehow, he comes out intact.

I had a terrible sinking feeling the moment Pudge singled in the Marlins 3rd run, the go-ahead run. I've had that feeling so many times these playoffs, and more often than not, the Cubbies have come back and reversed things on me. I haven't experienced such sustained and agonizing suspense since...well, never.
So yes, I'm starting to believe. Perhaps there is such a thing as destiny, or fate. If so, I just hope I have some hair and fingernails left once it has run its course.

Hands on a hard ball

There is such a thing as a ball-hawking veteran, one of those guys who stands on Waveland Ave. outside Wrigley Field awaiting home run balls. From the Chicago Suntimes:
''A game like this, it's harder,'' Dave Miedema of Berwyn, a 10-year ball-hawking veteran, said as he stood on the Waveland sidewalk Wednesday. ''A regular game, if it's not against a popular opponent, there are only four or five people out here. And tonight, you've got seven or eight guys who know what they're doing, how to catch a baseball, how to play it. A lot of people, unless it comes right to them, are never going to get a ball. All they do is get in the way. On a night like this, you've got to be careful.''

Cubs win! Cubs Win!

I'm so happy. I'm so happy.

What is a check swing?

Seems like the Cubbies let some great chances slip by, though I didn't see the game. Not sure I want to, knowing the result.
Caught most of the A's-Red Sox, though. What a ballgame! A's have to feel real good stealing one when Pedro was starting. Pedro was running on fumes his last inning, not even able to get his fastball up over 90mph to Durazo.
Something I learned this year is that there's no rule in the Major League Baseball rule book defining what a check swing is. The umpire just has to make his own judgment as to whether or not the batter swung. So when Durazo checked his swing on Pedro's changeup to load the bases and the third base ump said he didn't swing? How did he determine that? And when the TV cameras show the check swing in slow motion, how are we supposed to determine if it was a swing or not? How has this not been settled definitvely by Major League Baseball? Amazing. Personally, I'd propose that the bat has to cross the third base line (for LH batter) or the first base line (for a RH batter) to be considered a swing. You could use the front of home plate as a tighter boundary but then neither the third or first base ump would have a good perspective on it.
Great thing about the playoffs, especially a 5-game series: every game is critical. Inevitably, if the home team loses game one, everyone comments on how their backs are against the wall and how they'll have to win three of the next four. All those types of comments get old--I mean, we can all add. Still, the tension it adds to every inning renders just about every playoff game watchable.

Variations on a theme by Joe Sheehan

People may think Moneyball started the sabermetric revolution in baseball front offices across MLB, but the truth is that the teams that are practicing the ideas attributed to Billy Beane et al by Michael Lewis are run by people who shared Beane's philosophies long before Moneyball was written. Toronto is run by GM J.P. Ricciardi, a former Beane disciple, and the Red Sox are run by Theo Epstein and John Henry (Henry initially tried to hire Beane himself and had a verbal commitment until Beane backed out at the 11th hour), both Bill James disciples. And Bill James himself is now on the Red Sox staff.
So look at yesterday's baseball draft. As Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus points out: the Blue Jays opened with 18 straight college players; the A's 20 straight; the Red Sox 17 of their first 18; the Royals (!) 17 of 21. Who knows what's gotten into the Royals (somewhere Rob Neyer is grinning just a little), but the actions of the others are no surprise. Drafting college players offloads player development costs and risks onto college programs, and such players generally move up the minor league system quicker and reach the majors at a higher rate. Why do other teams draft high schoolers? Because they tempt the imagination with their tools at such a young age--after all, if some young high schooler can throw 90+ mph now, imagine what he'll be throwing when he fills out and matures?
I'm still a Cubs fan--it's not like you can switch sports allegiances like you do mutual funds when the management philosphy differs from your own--but I sure am jealous of Oakland, Toronto, and Boston fans. They are putting the principles I've been reading about into practice, and now they'll be tested in the crucible of the real world. The AL East is changing, and I expect the Red Sox and Blue Jays to pass the Yankees in the standings over the next several years. The Red Sox in particular should do well because they can afford a larger budget than either the Blue Jays and A's, AND they have sabermetrics behind them. Call it smart money.

Sosa day two

As Joe Sheehan so elegantly writes (you need a Baseball Prospectus subscription to read the full text), all the immediate and sweeping condemnation of Sosa in the wake of the corking incident from all directions is unfair and a symptom of our tendencies towards evidence-free convictions. There's no proof yet that he used a corked bat to achieve all of his historic accomplishments, and Yale physicist Robert Adair's The Physics of Baseball notes convincingly that corking bats is a useless and ineffective strategy (Nate bought that book for me way back in the day, and I highly recommend it for any baseball fan with a scientific interest). All we know is he used a corked bat yesterday. Most everyone believe he's lying when he says he grabbed a batting practice bat by mistake, but what basis do we have for such accusations other than our own smug desire to judge?
I been guilty of the same flippant suspicion of people in high places. We see Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire and Bret Boone turn into muscle men over the years, and my friends and I casually assume they're juiced up on steroids. Britney has a "swell" summer and we assume her boobs are fake. We're all just a bunch of sleazy paparazzi, in search of water cooler gossip. It's really small-minded, and I'm going to try to stop.
Corking a bat in one at-bat doesn't take away from the way Sosa hustles, his charity work, his hard work in the weight room, and his hard work with hitting coach Jeff Pentland. People forget that Sosa was a power hitter even when he was a skinny beanpole. His problem then was that he swung at everything and insisted on trying to pull every pitch. Most of his power gains came when he learned to lay off breaking balls in the dirt and to keep his weight back with his little toe tap.
It was still a boneheaded move. Why does he even use a corked bat for batting practice when hitting against old men who can barely break 60mph? I hope he realizes his true fans could care less what he does in BP. I for one hope that he'll be man enough to shrug off the doubters, serve his suspension, and come back strong. While I'm still sad about the whole affair, I'm putting the miniature Sosa bobblehead back on my monitor.
P.S.: I just noticed that Neyer did a column on the Sosa corking incident today. I'm with him all the way. Coverage of the Sosa incident by the mainstream press (see the ignorant, grandstanding Rick Reilly or read any of the major newspaper columnists) points out just how mediocre the average sportswriter in America is.

Day One Maury

Maury: "Derek, what do you do when you fall off the horse?" Silence. "You get back on! That's what this business is all about!"
Derek: "Sorry, Maury. But I'm not a gymnast."
For the first time in a long time, three months to be exact, I dressed for work today. No, I haven't been going to the office naked for three months. My sabbatical came to an end.
I woke up and realized I needed to press a shirt for work. Quite a change from my time hiking the Inca Trail, when I wore clothes that had been crumpled and stuffed into my pack for days.
You know what feels especially fresh after a layoff from work? The wrists. Typing hundreds of e-mails each week takes its toll on your hands. My fingers and wrists felt strong and limber today. They felt slightly less so after I worked my way through most of the 3,500 e-mails that had accumulated during my leave.
I saw a few folks, but for the most part I laid low. I feel like a stranger in the office, like an outsider. Like that feeling you have when walking into your room after months away. Everything is familiar but new--it's a dreamlike state, like deja vu. If only we could take regular breaks from all the familiar places in our life, they'd always seem fresh, magical.
Having been away for so long, there's much culture and news to assimilate. A not so brief tour of some of it...

Tufte on Powerpoint

Edward Tufte, author of what I consider to be essential reference books such as The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, writes an interesting critique of Microsoft Powerpoint. It costs $7, but it's worthwhile. Powerpoint has always been the weak link in Microsoft Office, and they I know it inside out, my relationship with it has always been one of reluctant acceptance. Not even love hate, because there isn't much love there.

How many airplanes are over the United States right now

A short clip illustrating a day in the life of air traffic over the U.S. (Quicktime movie). Cool.
A graphic of all the flights and bus rides and horse rides and train rides and hikes I took while in South America would look something like that as well.

Exponential hype

Has there every been a movie more hyped than Matrix Reloaded? The practice of offering pre-screenings and access to either Time or Newsweek in advance in exchange for a cover story (The Two Towers was the previous movie to make that type of business deal, in exchange for one of those covers, I think it was Time) is already getting old. I'm a fairly big film geek, but let's be honest. A blockbuster movie doesn't really merit the cover of Time magazine, not at this time in the world, and perhaps not ever. Standing in the airport on arrival in the U.S. from South America I saw Morpheus and Trinity and Neo staring at me from every second magazine cover.
I haven't seen the movie yet (being on sabbatical meant a temporary demotion from the ranks of the opening day fanatics, but the next time I'm in line for the first showing at Cinerama, say for LOTR: Return of the King, don't call it a comeback), but the expectations are so great that some backlash and letdown is inevitable. The "okay people, let's get real, it's just a movie and not some philosophical masterpiece" articles were bound to happen at some point after the first movie inspired books with titles like Taking the Red Pill: Science, Philosophy and Religion in The Matrix.
After the uniqueness of the first movie (American movies that appropriate visual tropes from Japanese anime and Chinese martial arts cinema is always considered fresh in this country), it's hard to imagine the second movie being superior except in budget and special effects.
Okay, so the Wachowski brothers aren't the next coming of Kierkegaard and Baudrillard. I hope that amidst the marketing blitz no one made the mistake in thinking that they were.

Apple Music Store

The new Apple music store is very solid. The solution is not complex. In fact, it's built on components that have been available all along. (1) Selection: Apple has songs from all five major music labels (2) Micropayments: allows users to download individual songs for the fair price of $0.99 (3) Ownership: the service allows users unlimited burning of the songs to CDs and generous sharing of the songs across their iPod and 3 Mac computers.
My main quibble is that the selection, while it includes albums from all five major music labels, is still just a fraction of the music available from their vaults. It will likely take some time before all the artists allow their music to be shared digitally through the Apple music store, but it's futile to resist. There are still numerous albums and artists I'd like to see represented. Let's hope their early success convinces holdouts to cross the line.
I'd also prefer that the $0.99 price per song be inclusive of sales tax. But that's just me being greedy, since I don't really mind odd prices ($1.07 per track after sales tax in Washington) when I'm paying with a credit card.
All in all, the new music store is a surprising but well-executed move on the part of Apple. It won't eliminate or even significantly dent music piracy, but count me among the converted who are happy to fork over $0.99 for a good tune. Another reason, if you're considering joining the Mac community, to follow through.

PowerPC 970

And a second reason to make the Mac leap sometime in the next year? Perhaps a launch of a new processor architecture, finally bringing Apple out of the dark ages and into greater parity with the Intel and AMD processors powering most Windows boxes.
Considering the popularity of Macs as multimedia editing machines, the new processors can come none too soon. Rendering certain effects on a Mac can be painfully slow.

Lance, part deux

Lance Armstrong and Sally Jenkins are working on a sequel, Every Second Counts, to the bestselling biography It's Not About the Bike: My Journey Back to Life. I'm counting down every second, though it doesn't look like it will be ready for me to carry with me up the Alps in July.

The few. The proud.

If TV marketing held complete sway over me, I'd most definitely be a Marine. Great commercials.

Sports break

Bill James, every interesting, both for his analysis and his crusty personality, conducted a chat at ESPN today. His sharp tongued writing is always entertaining, particularly in a chat environment where he can always get the last word. An example:
Tim - Cohasset, MA: Bill, I'm very interested in your work and was wondering how a 20 year old college student would get in on the ground floor working for a team like the Red Sox.
Bill James: Learn to throw 95
Come to think of it, Bill James and Edward Tufte have a lot in common. Among the fun assertions he makes, in the chat, is that the three most valuable commodities in baseball, in order, are Alex Rodriguez, Mark Prior, and Vladimir Guerrero. Good news for Cubs fans. Maybe the Cubbies can sign Vlad in the offseason and get two out of three. I don't think Cubs fans realize yet how good Mark Prior can be. He's certainly the pitcher you'd draft first in the entire major leagues if you held a major league wide draft.
Speaking of the Cubbies, they pulled out a 17 inning game today. The Cubs are going to break the single season strikeout record they themselves set two years ago (that's my prediction). They are stocked up and down with power arms, and today Todd Wellemeyer struck out the side for the save in his major league debut. He was throwing 95 mph cheese and mixing in an 84 mph changeup with very good arm action. Granted, it was against the strikeout prone Brewers, but still, a lot of the Cubs strikeouts have to do with the power arms on their staff. They have a seemingly endless supply of 6' 3" to 6' 6" right handers who throw in the mid 90's. Nasty. Now if the Cubs pick up Mike Lowell from the Marlins before the trading deadline, I'm going to start getting nervous, in a good way.

4 is an unlucky number in Chinese

As the ever smart John Hollinger predicted, the Lakers succumbed the the Spurs, ending their run of championships at 3. Even with Rick Fox, their bench was terrible, and a lot of their loss this year should be blamed on their general manager, who did nothing to bolster their team behind Kobe and Shaq. I was no fan of Jerry Krause, but at least he knew that restocking around Jordan and Pippen was his single most important job, and he did his job well. It doesn't take much when you have two players as good as Kobe and Shaq, so it's a particularly egregious failure on the part of Lakers management.
The Bulls formula was straightforward. Surround Jordan and Pippen with strong jumpshooters to take the kickouts (Kerr, Paxson) and defenders (Grant, Rodman, Harper). The supporting cast knew their roles. Poor Kobe and Shaq had nothing to work with this year. Still, as a Bulls fan, I'm pretty happy to see the Lakers stopped short of 4 in a row. Sam Smith always claims the Bulls couldn't have won four in a row even if Jordan had stuck around after either of the runs of 3 championships, but I disagree. I like Kobe and Phil, but I like Jordan even more.
Fun players to watch when they're hot: Kobe (like Jordan, has developed into a dangerous 3 point threat when it counts), Nick Van Exel (pretty left-handed stroke), Allen Iverson (can embarrass defenders in a greater variety of ways than any player in the NBA), Tracy McGrady (always the chance he'll dunk in a way that will strip his defender of all manhood), and Dirk Nowitzki (the ball hits his hands and then is gone a second later in a beautiful arc towards the basket, no matter where he is on the court). Maybe Paul Pierce, and Peja. Tim Duncan isn't terribly exciting to watch, but his footwork is beautiful.

Getting high

I'm waiting out a torrid rainstorm here in Cusco, in an Internet Cafe. All Internet cafe's advertise themselves with the adjective "speedy" here in South America. This one happens to fulfill that promise. I've been in Cusco before, and I've spent enough time here to actually have a favorite Internet cafe.
Cusco (also spelled Cuzco, depending on the source; every location and building here in the city has multiple spellings and names, reflecting the tension here between the city's Queccha/Incan roots and its modern identity, post Spanish invasion and post independence from said Spanish conquerors): the first thing most visitors notice about the city is its altitude of 3,400 meters. You don't see it, but you feel it. Walking at a brisk pace quickly leaves you breathless, and if you push it, eventually you get a nasty migraine. Or worse. It's my first experience with altitude sickness, which affects people randomly. It has nothing to do with your fitness (reminds me of oxygen consumption in scuba diving, which also seems unrelated to any measurable physiological characteristics of the diver).
Once you get over the dizzying heights, though, Cusco is a fabulous destination. Much more interesting and exotic than Lima, which you almost always have to fly through to get here. Sure, it's a tourist mecca, but it earns that distinction by virtue of its Incan ruins. The walls of Cusco are a spatial embodiment of its history. The base of many walls consist of Incan masonry, still existing from the age of the Incan empire in the 15th and 16th century. On top of that base of stones, fitted together with remarkable craftsmanship, are the cement and clay walls built by the conquering Spanish. Most of the cathedrals in the city were built by the Spanish atop Incan temples, and it's a shame more of those temples don't exist today. The Incan walls are famous for being made up of giant stones fitted together with remarkable airtight efficiency. The technology to build such walls exists today, but not the patience.
Today, Cusco seems to want to return to its Incan roots. Most locals I meet here proudly proclaim themselves Indian, though no pure Incans remain. Still, it's unique to see a country embrace its distant past. Most contries I've visited treat their indigenous peoples like a cultural artifact to be placed in museums by the conquering Europeans.
Despite the lousy weather right now, I've gained a second wind and am excited to begin the hike. A few days ago, lying ill in a tiny cabin on a ship off of the coast of the Galapagos Islands, I had a momentary pang of homesickness, but now that I'm in Cusco I'm ready to travel another several months. It could be a result of the delightful Peruvian or Andean cuisine. I'm surprised not to have seen any Andean cuisine in the U.S. The day after my nasty bout of altitude sickness, I had a huge Peruvian lunch at a an outdoor restaurant (quinta) called Quinta Eulalia. My meal consisted of rocoto rellenos (spicy bell peppers stuffed with ground beef and cheese and vegetables), choclo con queso (corn on the cob with a slab of local cheese), and chicharrones (fried chunks of pork ribs called chancho). Mmmmmmm. The corn on the cob here is some strain I don't recognize. Each kernel is three times the size of a corn kernel in the U.S., making it look like some mutant vegetable. Other favorites include their locros (potato stews), adobo (spicy pork stews), tamales (like corn bread, wrapped in banana leaves), and anticucho (grilled beef hearts on a skewer). I tried the cuy al horno, the most famous local delicacy, roasted guinea pig. The meat was sweet, but there were a ton of bones, and since the pig came out to me whole, legs splayed out on the plate, teeth bared in a sort of death grin, I couldn't help but feel some pangs of sympathy for an animal which we embrace as house pets in the States.
I have achieved travel zen. No amount of travel inconveniences ruffle me. For every inconvenience there is more than one benefit. The altitude which plays havoc with my body also means that lots of the mountain biking here is downhill. It's insane downhill. You're on an ancient mountain bike, without toe clips or clipless pedals, with lousy brakes, flying down the mountain on the same path as suicidally aggressive trucks, buses, and taxis, fleeing from stray dogs which may or may not be rabid but are definitely hungry, dust and potholes everywhere. And from time to time, if you dare look to the side, you'll see some several hundred year old Incan ruins, like the salt pans of Salinas. How can you beat that?
(though I do, on nights when Mark Prior is pitching, desperately wish I could get a televised feed...I read how he plunked Barry Bonds and then jawed with him...I'm just waiting until I get home so I can purchase an authentic Mark Prior jersey to go along with the autographed Mark Prior baseball I bought last year)
"I respect Barry as a player, as a hitter and obviously what he's done... The inside part of the plate for me, for me to be effective I need it. I was just trying to back him off. He said what he had to say and I said what I had to say. I hold nothing against him. That doesn't mean the next time I face him I'm not going to go right back inside."
--Mark Prior, Cubs pitcher, after hitting Barry Bonds (AP)
"I'm sure it could have gotten heated. I wasn't going to back down from him at all... Just because he's got 15-20 years in the big leagues and 600 homers and I have been in the league a little under a year doesn't mean I have to stop doing what makes me a professional."
--Prior

No escape from Kiper's hair, even in Cusco

Any more worthlessly analyzed event than the pro football draft? The last time I was in Cusco, I stopped for lunch at a restaurant, and the meal took two hours, as the wait staff was working on South American time. The TV in the corner was tuned to ESPN, which was, I surmised, broadcasting the NFL draft for nearly the whole day. Mel Kiper and the rest of ESPN's supposed draft geniuses, dubbed in Spanish, boxed in to complex screens that had tickers running across the left and bottom of the screens, several rows or columns deep, numbers scrolling right to left, up to down, in all directions. It was, perhaps, the single greatest volume of incomprehensible multimedia information every to wash over me. (I should note that super agent Drew Rosenhaus was the only person so loud that he could not be drowned out by the dubbed Spanish track; Rosenhaus, inspiration for Bob Sugar in Jerry Maguire, is the perfect caricature of a power sports agent, except he's for real)
I agree with TMQ on the absurdities of NFL draft analysis--it's all much ado about nothing. Among them, the ridiculousness of 40 yard dash times which differ by mere percentage points, insightful observations such as "first round quarterbacks usually fail since the last few superbowls have been won by journeymen quarterbacks," and stuff like that. I personally find it ridiculous that groups of rowdy fans for a team will be shown on TV, cheering or booing draft picks of players they couldn't name just days before. Why do we care what those boorish football fans care? And why are they spending an entire day of their lives watching a football draft live, anyway? Get a life.

Road Reading

I've been devouring books during transit times through airports, or long bus or plane rides. The selection is miniscule, and most bookstores that carry any English books have the most random selection. It takes dedication to sift through for some worthwhile nuggets. Among my conquests these past two weeks:

• George Stephanopoulus' All Too Human: A Political Education, a fairly interesting account of his days working on the first Clinton campaign, up until his resignation at the end of Clinton's first term. The relationship he had with the Clintons was a complex one, and because they didn't end up as close friends Stephanopoulos can give an honest opinion of Clinton (one could argue that his honest account ended their friendship, though it doesn't seem that way). The book also made me realize just how much of a model it was for Sorkin's The West Wing. Entire plotlines seem lifted from real life. Speaking of Clinton, I see Monica Lewinsky's reality TV show has debuted; it's events like this which make me yearn for another couple of months away from the U.S.


• Bret Easton Ellis' American Psycho. I'd read excerpts before, but never the entire book. More gruesome and disturbing than the movie it inspired, which more people were exposed to, I suspect. This is an impressive novel, and its narrative induced in me a trance-like fever. Or perhaps that was the bad ceviche talking. At any rate, I'll have to put it on my all-time favorites list when I get home.
• Jonathan Seabrook's Nobrow: The Culture of Marketing, the Marketing of Culture took me just a few hours on a plane ride to finish. Seabrook, who wrote and still contributes on occasion to The New Yorker, writes about the replacement of highbrow and lowbrow culture in America today, and he dubs the conquering fusion of commerce and culture nobrow. He uses the struggles of The New Yorker as a case study of how cultural elitists have lost sway in a society in which pop culture reigns supreme. In America, a nation where social hierarchy is extremely fluid, highbrow culture (reflected in the early, William Shawn New Yorker attitude) consisted of opera, classical music, ballet, the classics. It's the attitude that says anything that is popular can't be of substantive quality, because such an attitude is all that preserves one's elitism in a society in which any Joe can become one of the wealthy, instead of just inheriting it. Somewhere along the way, though, fringe became mainstream, and all the boundaries collapsed and became meaningless. Nirvana's success is most often cited as that seminal moment in the music world when alternative became mainstream, and the assimilation of hip hop is seen as the logical outgrowth. Clinton is the Nobrow president, able to use polls to maximize his Q-ratings, changing chameleonlike to maintain his popularity instead of having to take a guess at which stance would be most popular with the public. Anyway, that's just a rough summary of his thesis, which, though it meanders a bit, is quite fascinating. I think I personify nobrow in my tastes, which range from classic to pop culture. If you had to pick a magazine that reflects nobrow, perhaps Entertainment Weekly would be it.

I've hit the end of the line, though. I don't have any more books to read, and Cusco doesn't have any great English language bookstores. My need to read is compulsive. Given my current state, I really wish I could plug my iPod in and start downloading tunes from Apple's new music download service. As if you needed a reason to purchase an iPod, which now comes in a few new models with a slimmer form factor. I'm glad they added a docking station, and jealous, of course, since mine is one of the old fatties, and, at 10Gb, the lowest capacity now offered.

The Onion: Saddam may be dead

Funny.
I'm sure a similar reaction awaits me on my first day back in the office.
Early analysis indicates SARS may have come from a virus that causes bronchitis in birds.

***

Sosa joined the 500 homer club on Friday night with a blast to right. How do you do that double chest thump blow kiss chest thump blow kiss thing in ASCII? Gotta give the man his props.
Sosa always had a fair amount of power, but I admit I didn't think much of him when the Cubs nabbed him from the White Sox for George Bell. Unlike someone like Barry Bonds, Sosa did not come to the majors fully formed. He was a free swinger, with all the tools of speed and power but no discipline. Very few hitters develop plate discipline late in life, but miraculously, around the age of 30, Sosa suddenly became a big, patient power hitter. As soon as he stopped swinging at every high fastball and every breaking ball down and away, pitchers had to come in with the fastball, and with his newfound toe tap to get his weight moving properly he started punishing balls to all fields. He has the most opposite field power of any right handed hitter I've ever seen (his 500th homer was an example, a line drive blast to right on a day when everything Griffey hit that way was knocked down by the wind).
Sosa's no longer fast, and he's not going to win any gold gloves in right, but he more than makes up for it with his offensive production and hustle. Plus, unlike Bonds, who's just an ass, Sosa's very generous with the fans and with his charities.
Hee Seop Choi has very good plate patience, as does Mark Bellhorn. They just don't swing at balls. Very refreshing. Corey Patterson still hacks at anything from head to ankles--he needs to learn from Sosa. Tools + plate discipline equals superstardom.

Enter the Matrix

Trailer for the videogame based on Matrix Reloaded has been released. It contains quite a bit of new footage from Matrix Reloaded, but no spoilers, so catch it if you're curious.
If one flaw of the Matrix movies jumps to mind, it's perhaps the near robotic, or zen-like if you're generous, line readings and acting, some of which are on display in this trailer. Everyone's decked out in leather and too cool to emote. Except Keanu, who's method acting. Whoa.

***

NPR has excellent coverage of Grutter vs. Bollinger, the lawsuit against the University of Michigan's affirmative action program. NPR's coverage includes audio clips from the actual hearings. For the first time I can remember, the Supreme Court allowed news organizations to record the oral arguments because of the importance of this case, arguably the most important civil rights case to come before the Supreme Court in decades. It will have implications on affirmative action in employment practices, scholarship programs, mentoring programs, not to mention admissions programs at universities throughout the land.
It's worth listening to some of the two hours of footage just to hear the judges comments. They're quite colorful, and the personalities of each of the judges comes through in a way that pure transcripts can't convey. It's fairly clear how most of them feel about this case. Stevens, Ginsburg, Breyer, and Souter will rule in favor of Michigan, and they seem to have been heavily influenced by a brief filed by former heads of U.S. military academies and Joint Chiefs of Staff who note that affirmative action has been a huge success in the military and that without such programs the military would return to being almost all white. Kennedy, Scalia, Rehnquist, and Thomas fall on the other side, with their primary argument being that the Michigan program is a thinly disguised quota which would be unconstitutional. That leaves Sandra Day O'Connor as the swing vote, as she has often been on this court. As usual, she is difficult to read.
Listening to the justices pressing the lawyers on their arguments is fascinating. The complexity and nuances of the issue gain shape in the give and take between everyone present, and the arguments and debate are eloquent and all of the highest order. No screaming or shouting or Hollywood legal grandstanding. I had the audio stream of the oral arguments on in the background while writing this morning and couldn't turn it off. No matter what side or the argument you're on, keep an open mind and listen to some of the points made on either side.
If all court cases were of this nature, I'd pay money to attend sessions, just as I would to watch a Cubs game. Certainly the debate was more educational and entertaining than most of the plays I've seen this past year.

***

The SARS outbreak is another intriguing story. Terrifying, of course, but fascinating in that viruses are amazing killers, brutally efficient, unpredictable, and able to evolve rapidly to ensure their own survival.
One controversial decision made by Hong Kong officials was to continue to host last weekend's World Cup of rugby, which brought teams from 24 countries around the world and packed 25,000 screaming, drinking fans into close quarters. Originally officials planned to distribute surgical masks, but they were in short supply so bandannas were substituted. Predictably, few were put to use. The obvious question is whether or not Hong Kong's government felt pressure to continue with the event to boost tourism in a country that is already suffering a cataclysmic collapse in the face of the war and of course what is effectively a global quarantine by tourists. The incubation period of SARS is estimated at one week, so the impact of their decision should become apparent shortly.
The SARS virus reminds me of some of the ideas presented in Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond (which, by the way, is one of the most influential books I've ever read, with amazing explanatory power and scope). Many of the diseases which Europeans brought abroad to the New World were ones which humans caught from domestic animals with whom they had close physical contact. The New World failed to transmit many diseases back in the reverse direction because of the relative shortage of large herds of domestic animals there. This may explain why SARS seems to have broken from Southern China, where many people still live in close quarters with domesticated animals. New strains of viruses often develop in animals and jump to humans.
The second idea I recall is that the threat of the disease to humans the world over may be inversely related to its lethality. Viruses which kill off its hosts quickly often die off because they don't have time to spread to other hosts. The first symptoms of syphilis when it was first discovered in 1495 included pustules covering the entire body, the peeling away of skin from people's faces, and death within months. But by the mid 1500's it had evolved into the milder form we're familiar with today. By keeping its victims alive longer, syphilis ensured it could spread to more victims to ensure its own survival. Assuming SARS can be successfully quarantined, if it was indeed as lethal as some surmise, it could quickly fade away. A good example was the Ebola virus, too deadly to ever get out of Africa.
Early speculation, though, is that SARS is a very contagious coronavirus, capable of surviving long periods of time on surfaces, and that some victims appear to be superinfectors who distribute aereosolized viral balloons which can survive for hours while floating in the air. This is all speculation, of course. Scientists aren't even one hundred percent sure how colds are transmitted.

***

I know, it's too early to extrapolate a season based on two baseball games. What I'm about to write about the Mariners has nothing to do with their first two losses to division rival Oakland, though they fit a pattern. Derek Zumsteg of Baseball Prospectus has written extensively on the Mariners philosophy and economic situation in the past.
The Mariners best chance to make the playoffs with the old team they have was last year, and ownership made a pretty strong statement about how important that was to them by going out to grab Jose Offerman and Doug Creek when they could have had Cliff Floyd or Scott Rolen for the stretch run. I completely understand why Piniella left. Ostensibly it was about family, but he had to be frustrated with the cards he was dealt. Now they're left with an even older team which they're paying a lot of money for. Freddy Garcia is overrated and flaky. Jamie Moyer is an old, soft-tossing lefty of 40 years of age. Pitchers of that profile don't age well. As soon as they lose command, they get shelled because their stuff is just not that good. Joel Pineiro had a great year but isn't quite as dominant as a starter as he was as a reliever. At least he's young and healthy. I can't even name the other two starters, though I think one of them is Gil Meche, who's due for a lot of "first full year back from arm injury" shellackings.
On offense, the Mariners have three decent offensive weapons in Ichiro, Olerud, and Edgar. None are spring chickens, and all are in what are typically decline years in production, though Ichiro should improve on last year if he can sustain his stamina better than last year. For some reason the Mariners decided in the offseason that the best move was to resign all their old players to multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. Dan Wilson? 2 years, $7 million, one of the most absurd signings all winter. Jamie Moyer? 3 year deal. Hasegawa? $1.5 million. Edgar and Olerud also were locked up, meaning the Mariners have committed to being adequately competitive this year, and decliningly competitive in the next two years.
But ownership doesn't seem to care. They're sitting on a beautiful stadium that they pay only $700K per year to lease, thanks to ample funding from Seattle citizens, and a revenue stream second to only the Yankees in baseball. The question is, how long will Seattle fans tolerate paying exorbitant ticket prices and $6.50 for a tiny cup of microbrewed beer? It makes me long for the $3.25 Budweisers I used to quaff in the Wrigley Field bleachers.
In a different division the demise might not be as apparent so quickly, but when you have Billy Beane in your class, twice as poor but about eight times as smart, it doesn't matter if you have a box of 64 crayons and Beane can only afford 32. Billy will still win the class coloring contest every time.
I'm a Cubs fan, so the fate of the Mariners concerns me little. Still, as a citizen who contributed some of my hard-earned dollars to funding the stadium that's enriching the M's ownership, I feel compelled to speak out. If you're going to take our money to build your cash machine, at least bring a legitimate World Series contender to the city. Otherwise, give me my money back.

Fuji Velvia 100F?

Fuji is coming out with a Fuji Velvia slide film rated at ASA100 this summer. This is big news, because Velvia 50 (or what has been known simply as Velvia until now) is by far most popular color slide film among professionals, especially outdoor photographers. It produces incredibly saturated colors, almost surreal, and has the highest DMax of any slide film I've used. It's certainly my favorite, and I shot a million photos in Velvia in Africa, my first introduction to photography. It didn't disappoint, and never has.
Supposedly Velvia 100 will be more color accurate than Velvia 50. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but I certainly won't complain about another flavor of slide film in the chocolate box.

Sleepless in Seattle

For my Seattle friends who find themselves with a free day...you can print out a map of all the Seattle locations featured in major motion pictures and TV shows.

A young Clemens?

Mark Prior's current most comparable pitcher according to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections is Roger Clemens. The similarity score is only 39 out of 100, but still, it's a good omen.

Cubs win! Cubs win!

Ah, if only Harry were around to exaggerate the importance of today's Cubs victory. Well, he isn't, so I will.
Let's see. Kerry Wood fought some of his control problems and had filthy stuff. Working exclusively with his fastball and a nasty overhand curve, when he was around the strike zone he was filthy. Looks like he might finally have command of that curve, and he got a few called 3rd strikes on it. When that pitch is on and Wood drops it on a batter after they've seen a few 95mph heaters, it's unfair. If he can work in command of the slider and changeup later this year...ooh baby.
Hee Seop Choi showed his patience at the plate, drawing two walks and smacking a double deep into left center. Patterson showed he can go get the ball in center field, and he'll have to surrounded by the two old horses Alou and Sosa.
Patterson of course had a career day with the two homers and 7 RBIs. I'm still not convinced he's mastered an approach at the plate. He still swings at everything. Still, when he connects, even when hitting off of his front foot, the ball flies off of his bat. If he had some of Choi's patience and pitch selection...
Juan Cruz was filthy in striking out the side two innings in a row. He looks like he has some attitude on the mound this year, and that's a good thing. His stats have always been better from the bullpen, but I still hope he beats out Estes for the fifth starter's job.
Alou looked very comfortable at the plate. The Cubs need a big year out of him batting behind Sosa.
Sosa was, as usual, Sosa. Patient at the plate, not chasing pitches out of the zone, he drew three walks and was content to go to the opposite field since they were pitching him that way.
And somehow Grudzielanek got on base four consecutive at-bats from the leadoff spot. Probably too good to last, but it makes Bobby Hill's demotion easier to stomach for one day, at least.
Should be, at the least, a competitive team.

Ouch! That pricks!

Went for my travel immunizations today and ended up $122 lighter! Sheesh. Who would think that a typhoid fever vaccine and my second Hepatitis-A booster and a few printouts from the Internet would cost that much? Is that the usual going rate? It cots $40 just to have the lady lecture me from notes I could have printed off of the government advisory web pages myself. Oh well.
You read enough before any trip and it's enough to scare you into staying home. In Rio de Janeiro it was the street gangs, carjackings, kidnappings, and riots. In my upcoming destinations I run the risk of yellow fever, malaria, typhoid fever, altitude sickness, Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B, Filariasis, Leishmaniasis, River Blindness, CHAGAS Disease, and rabies. Let's see, if I avoid swimming in any water, drinking any unbottled water, approaching any animals, and sleeping with any of the locals, and if I apply a toxic coating of DEET-rich insect repellent each day, I'll be safe.
Of course, it sounds safer than Asia, the epicenter of the SARS outbreak, or Europe, where some anti-American Frenchman might hurt beat me with a baguette.
Also saw the doctor this morning and was diagnosed with a sinus infection. No wonder I've been feeling so fatigued and miserable. Could barely keep my eyes open today, and a short spin on the bike left me utterly spent. Need to get my hands on some antibiotics tomorrow and try to nip this in the bud before I have to hike at altitude in frigid Patagonia.

Matrix Reloaded soundtrack, and Peter Jackson's next project

AICN had the track listing. Dave Matthews?!?
Disc 1
01. Linkin Park - Session
02. Marilyn Manson - This Is the New S**t
03. Rob Zombie - Reload
04. Rob D - Furious Angels
05. Deftones - Lucky You
06. Team Sleep - Passportal
07. P.O.D. - Sleeping Awake
08. UnLoco - Bruises
09. Rage Against The Machine - Calm Like A Bomb
10. Oakenfold - Dread Rock
11. Fluke - Zion
12. Dave Matthews - When The World Ends
Disc 2
01. Don Davis - Main Title
02. Don Davis - Trinity Dream
03. Juno Reactor - Tea House
04. Rob D - Chateau
05. Juno Reactor - Mona Lisa Overdrive
06. Don Davis vs. Juno Reactor - Burly Brawl
07. Don Davis - Reloaded Suite
As for Peter Jackson, his next project is a remake of King Kong for Universal. Probably more along the Harryhausen King Kong than the Guillermin version, which would be a good thing.

E-mail patterns

Interesting study on e-mail traffic patterns. Would love to see myself charted on e-mail traffic network charts.

Billy Beane

Looks like Michael Lewis (Liar's Poker) has excerpted his book Moneyball, the Art of Winning an Unfair Game on Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in this week's NYTimes Magazine. Can't wait for the book, and the article just whets the appetite more. Beane is the personal hero of sabermetric statheads everywhere because he's living proof that the theories they have obsessively constructed actually work in practice. In a perfect world, he'd be the Cubs general manager.
As well-run as the Oakland A's are as an organization, someone should also do an article on the Mariners as the model economic organization. Got taxpayers to foot the bill for their stadium so they barely pay anything to use it to line their wallets, built their own team store so they could keep all the margins for themselves, signed Ichiro not just as a fine ballplayer but as a tourist attraction, and have wisely parted ways with huge stars like Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez when they knew they couldn't absorb the economic hit. As outrageously profitable as the Mariners were last year, they should have signed someone for the stretch run last year. Their window may have closed.

Tony Blair

Out of this whole impassioned debate, I've come out quite intrigued with Tony Blair, who I knew nothing about before.

Scatter plot

Have been spending time with friends who are moving away from Seattle. Lunch with Peter on Friday, just before he caught a flight to London to search for housing. The next time I see him and Klara will be in London. Aaron, who's moving to Germany. The next time I see him and Roswitha will likely be at their wedding outside Nuremberg. Attended two going away parties for Greg and Kristin. The next time I see them will also be in London. Spent an afternoon with Bean, who I'll see again, though by year end I suspect she'll be settling into a new city I know well.
This still feels like an inflection point of a year to me. Close friends and family quitting jobs, changing jobs, starting jobs, moving out of town, getting married, having kids, buying houses, selling houses...you might think the rate of change is always this great and I've been too busy to notice, but you'd be wrong. This is more than usual.
Incidentally, everyone who sees me remarks on how healthy I look. Makes me suspect that while I was working at Amazon my appearance was sickly.

Cheap long distance

Bigzoo is the type of company I always suspected existed, but had never bothered to research. Karen suggested I check it out, though, and the rates are amazing! I can call Europe, Asia, and Australia for less than I currently pay to dial long-distance in the U.S.
I purchased some credit, and I'll give it a try tonight.

Prep for Patagonia

Went to REI as today was the last day to spend my 2002 dividend and get 10% off of one item in the store. Patagonia's going to be cold, and I needed some clothing and trekking gear.
Have to hand it to REI--all of the staff there know their stuff. Most are serious mountaineers themselves, and they had me set up with a multi-day pack in no time, and with my dividend and 10% discount it was a steal. The bonus was coming across an Arc'Teryx Gore-Tex shell on sale for $100 off. I'd seen it in the store before and love given up hope of ever seeing it discounted.
Also grabbed some short story collections from Twice Told Tales on Saturday, and now I just need some film and I'll be set for South America. Lots of solo time in the remote wilderness awaits. Emotionally I'm not necessarily ready to head off. Everything here at home feels comfortable right now and there's plenty to do. Still, it's always better to be out ahead of these curves. The day after I return from South America is the first day I'm due back at the office!!!
We'll ignore that for now.

Pics from New Zealand and Australia

Yes, I'm behind on these. Scanning is laborious, and I've been trying to jot down my memories to go with the photos, and it's all taking much longer than expected. So much to recall. But I promise, it will be up before I leave for South America.

Warm weather, not so hot on the bike

Yesterday and today were the two warmest days of the year thus far in Seattle. 60's, slightly overcast. Woke up exhausted this morning--not sure why. Couldn't keep my eyes open all afternoon, and didn't want to follow through on a promised bike ride with Laura. Neither did she, I suspected. A movie would have been the easy way out.
But thankfully I censored my inner wuss and pushed for a loop around Magnolia. The warm spring air woke me up (it's good to sweat), as did the ride. I'm still as slow as a cow on the bike. Usually I've gotten a few hundred miles in on the bike by this time of year, and I think I just broke 150 today. It will take more than these occasional 30 mile spins to get in shape for the Alps of France in July. Oh, it's humbling in the saddle.