What type of President do you want?

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From this week's George Packer article in The New Yorker:

The alternatives facing Democratic voters have been characterized variously as a choice between experience and change, between an insider and an outsider, and between two firsts—a woman and a black man. But perhaps the most important difference between these two politicians—whose policy views, after all, are almost indistinguishable—lies in their rival conceptions of the Presidency. Obama offers himself as a catalyst by which disenchanted Americans can overcome two decades of vicious partisanship, energize our democracy, and restore faith in government. Clinton presents politics as the art of the possible, with change coming incrementally through good governance, a skill that she has honed in her career as advocate, First Lady, and senator.

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Bloody Monday

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Zooey Deschanel is coming out with an album of tunes with M. Ward. They call themselves She and Him. Indie people everywhere swoon. Stream the songs at this MySpace page, pre-order the album Volume One from Amazon.com. The new Magnetic Fields is streaming on MySpace, too.




I enjoyed the film City of God, and now we have City of Men, with City of God director Fernando Meirelles as producer. View the trailer here. The movie starts a limited run in the US this Friday.


Old school civil rights leaders turn a cold shoulder on Obama.


It's pretty clear Blu-Ray is going to win this high-def DVD format war. The downside, in the near term, is that it's near impossible to get a Blu-Ray DVD from your Netflix queue.


I think it's safe to classify "I drink your milkshake" as a meme now. I saw the movie last week and enjoyed it, and damned if there haven't been some stellar scores this year by folks you think of as rockers first: Jonny Greenwood and Nick Cave. I'm a huge fan of Brahms' Violin Concerto and of Arvo Part, so to put music by both in that movie is almost like cheating.


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Hope

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I'm not familiar enough with the Iowa Caucus process to pass decisive judgment, though what I've read about it always makes me question the sanity of the process. But as an early momentum generator, as a signal to those who tend to vote for front-runners, and as a determinant of what stories the media spins, it's probably more important than the 1% of delegates it chooses. In that respect, I read the results as a confirmation of the momentum and confidence Obama and his campaign have been feeling for the last month or so.


I just watched his victory speech on replay on CNN. It's nothing new if you've heard him speak at all recently; he reiterates many of the same messages, using almost identical wording as he used when I heard him speak in Los Angeles. And yet he still fires me up more than any other candidate in my lifetime. The man can bring some rhetorical heat.








Some other telling indicators. People under 30 preferred Obama over Clinton by a huge margin; I've read the difference as in the neighborhood of 57% to 11%. 57%!!! People under 30 made up over a third of Obama's support. 22% of Iowa Democrats at the caucus were less than age 30, compared to 17% in 2004.


Obama won 35% of the votes from women versus 30% for Clinton.


Among independents, Obama won 41% of the vote versus Clinton's 17%.


Youth, women, independents. Yes, yes, small sample size, but that's three critical groups to win.


Look at the trading prices of Clinton and Obama's Presidential Nominee shares over the last 7 days (a share price of 50 would mean that traders believe that event has a 50% chance of happening):




For the Democrats as a group, an incredibly positive sign is that twice as many people showed up for the Democrats as the Republicans.


This is going to be an interesting month.


Obama in LA

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Monday night, I saw Barack Obama speak in LA at the Gibson Ampitheatre. For a contribution to the campaign, I received a ticket to hear Obama speak. As I stood in line to get in, I scanned a mixed crowd ranging of all races, from teenagers in high school to senior citizens. Was this crowd more or less diverse than that for other candidates? Was Obama a great uniter? I had no frame of reference.


When I reached the security check, the guard took one look at my Nikon digital SLR and shook his head.


"That ain't going in," he said.


I bristled immediately.


Several days earlier, I had called the contact number listed for the event and described my camera and asked if it would be allowed into the event. I'd had to run back to the parking lot to leave my camera behind one time too many. The woman on the other end assured me that my camera would be welcome. I recounted this story to the guard, but he was not moved.


While he held me back from entering the event, one person after another walked past with their cameras. I asked why those cameras were allowed in while mine wasn't. He declined to elaborate, which infuriated me even more. The likely distinction was that my camera was an SLR while the ones being allowed through were compact, but I wanted to hear him say it so I could explain to him how ridiculous the policy was. But he remained impassive and mute, like a bouncer at some trendy nightclub.


I was directed to a table and forced to hand over my camera. A black cloud floated over my head as I walked into the facility.


The short-sighted aspects of this policy are numerous. An SLR generally takes better pictures than a compact camera, but compressed for the web, the distinctions in photo quality would be lost on the vast majority of users. Most compact cameras actually have longer zooms than the standard SLR lens. What was I going to do, sell high-quality pictures of Obama, one of the most photographed people in news today? Once inside the event, I saw some other folks who weren't press members who did manage to get there digital SLRs through security. I couldn't get the bad taste out of my mouth the rest of the night.


The first thing I would've done with any photos of Obama would be to post the best one here and sing his praises, but instead I've wasted ten minutes of my life ranting about the restrictive policy at this event. It's a lose-lose situation. In this day and age, allowing people to snap photos and share them across Facebook or Flickr or weblogs is a form of free publicity. I hope someone at the campaign does the right thing and corrects it for future events. This persecution of SLRs needs to end.


I grabbed a seat two rows up from the VIP section around the stage (yes, a seat good enough to have snapped some great photos...I'll stop now). After sitting for about an hour, a series of introductory speakers came out to sing Obama's praises and fire up the crowd. Nick Cannon of Drumline fame served as the host of the evening, and Kal "Kumar" Penn came out and spoke of his work campaigning for Obama in Iowa.


Having musical guests play at these types of events has always seemed forced to me. It's difficult to imagine any presidential candidate having enough time to listen to music or keep up with the music scene, and the political endorsements of all but a few musicians hold little value to me. The first musical guest was Ne-Yo. The speakers to either side of the stage were cranked up. I could literally feel the sound waves hitting me in the chest. The other musical guest was The Goo Goo Dolls, an odd choice to me considering their last big hit was in...umm...


Sitting in front of me at the event was a familiar face, but not familiar enough for me to know by name. I knew he was an actor, but I couldn't place him. He left his seat early in the event, and the next time I saw him was on stage, as one of the speakers. It was James Whitmore.


There were plenty of movie stars in the crowd (the online web page for the event listed people like Scarlett Johansson, Jessica Biel, and Olivia Wilde; it's good to know Obama has locked up the Hollywood hottie vote). But there was no doubt who the biggest star in the room was on this night.


Throughout the night and especially during Obama's speech, speakers hammered on several key message of their campaign.



  • Obama did not vote for the Iraq war, and Republicans will not be able to use that against him (the contrast to Clinton was unspoken, but only because it was so clear that she was the target).

  • The American people need someone to tell them what they need to hear, not what they want to hear. This is part of Obama's conscious strategy to inform the electorate that he plans to run a non-traditional campaign, one in which he's not afraid to speak honestly about what the tradeoffs are. If certain policies require raising taxes, then he's going to tell it like it is. As a realist I find this refreshing, though I'm not convinced it's the optimal campaign strategy. I hope his instincts are right.

  • His is a campaign that embraces all people, of all races and sexual orientations and political affiliations. Over and over, he spoke of the need to dispense with red state blue state model of the U.S.

  • He intends to be the greenest President in history, and he plans to generate jobs through his efforts to aid the environment.

  • Universal health care.

  • Raise minimum wage, bridge the gap between the haves and the have-nots.

  • He plans to restore the U.S. standing in the international community. He said he awaited the day when he can stand before the United Nations and tell the world, "We're back."


He displayed some humor during the evening, first in talking about his disappointment in finding out he was related to Dick Cheney, the second about the Clinton campaign's investigation into his Kindergarten papers. Of the latter, he noted, "We'll be releasing those papers on Monday. I tugged on a girl's ponytail once. And liked it."

It's dangerous to judge too much about a candidate's policies and qualifications for office at a rehearsed event like this. But whether you mean to or not, you assess a person's personality and character when you meet them in person, the same way you measure a person from the first moment you meet them in a job interview. Their body language, their words, their voice, their posture--all these feed into your perception of the person.

On that front, Obama is the most compelling candidate, either Democrat or Republican, in the upcoming election. He has a certain charisma that's difficult to teach. Clinton is polished and experienced and competent, but she lacks his inherent magnetism.


The other thing that struck me was how easy it was to garner huge support in this election just by promising not to be Dubya. Who thought that eliciting enthusiastic screams for a crowd could be as simple as saying, "I promise not to torture people in Guantanamo!"


The Obama argument

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Andrew Sullivan makes the case for Barack Obama in The Atlantic Monthly. A good summary of why he's my choice, also.


Glassbooth.org asks you a series of questions and then matches you to the Presidential candidate most representative of your concerns and views. I'm no expert on politics, but I do have a few thoughts:



  • Most of the Democratic candidates have fairly similar policy proposals. So electability versus the putative Republican candidate matters more than any one particular policy stance.

  • Instead of trying to elect the candidate who will do the greatest good, it's more important to avoid electing the candidate who will do the greatest harm. I think of government as more analogous to baseball, where one superstar has less impact, than basketball, where you can build a competitive team around one great player.

  • I don't believe the old adage about idealistic young Democrats becoming wealthy old Republicans holds as strongly as one suspects. More likely to me that your party affiliation is set in your first couple of elections and held there by inertia and some desire for appearing consistent in your beliefs. I think Obama is best positioned to continue Democratic strength among the younger demographic, and in doing so, solidify the Democratic vote for a couple elections.


Again, I have no evidence to support these points. They are just my hypotheses.


Wealth of Nations

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A few interesting articles...


Why are some nations wealthier than others? In Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond pointed to differences in geography.


In his new book A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, economics professor Greg Clark identifies the main culprit as differences in quality of labor.


***


Bruce Schneier discusses correspondent inference theory and why that evolutionary brain glitch undermines terrorism. Schneier based his article on a paper by Max Abrams in International Security titled "Why Terrorism Does Not Work" (PDF). All very fascinating and insightful.


***


Joel on Software rants against the scourge of anonymous comments on the web. He's not saying anything new, but it's good to see the backlash continue. Reading long comment threads on most posts is a depressing thing.


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Spiderman the musical?!

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Marvel is in pre-production on Spider-Man the musical, to be directed by Tony-winner Julie Taymor with music and lyrics by Bono and the Edge.


Nice Flickr collection of the evocative name placards on apartment complexes here in Santa Monica. I agree with the photographer - these are the sole redeeming feature of the otherwise fugly apartment architecture ubiquitous in Santa Monica (and Los Angeles in general). You've never seen so much stucco and old shag carpet.


Kaoru Kubo is the famous voice heard on Airport Limousine buses ferrying passengers from Narita Airport to Tokyo. Very soothing.


A montage of beautiful title sequences by Kuntzel+Deygas who did the titles for Catch Me If You Can, among others.


Classified government report says Al-Qaeda is the strongest it's been since 9/11. How did this country ever elect Dubya? Perhaps Bryan Caplan is right.


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Revisiting Intrade odds for the 2008 election

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Last bid on GOP nominee:



36.0 Rudy Giuliani

34.7 Fred Thompson

17.7 Mitt Romney

 3.8 John McCain


Fred Thomspon at 34.7 and John McCain at 3.8? Wow, I'm out of touch. My last impression of Fred Thompson was his struggles to deal with terrorists in Die Hard 2. Sure, the good guys won, but I'd give most of the credit to John McClane.


And the last bids on the Democratic Presidential Nominee side:


40.9 Hillary Clinton

37.5 Barack Obama

 8.9 Al Gore

 5.1 John Edwards


Poor John Edwards is losing to someone who isn't even running.


Intrade also now has shares for the winner of the 2008 Presidential election:



24.5 Hillary

20.9 Barack

18.5 Rudy

18.5 Fred


The Democrats are also predicted to have control of both the Senate and the House.


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iNotes

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Very little evidence supporting theory that poverty breeds terrorism. I find that reassuring.


In a Q&A about some device called the iPhone, Walt Mossberg says Apple will add Flash support to the iPhone browser through an early software update.


Alessandro Petacchi out of the Tour de France after doping charge. His urine sample after the third of his five stage wins at this year's Giro d'Italia showed an unusually high level of albutamol, an asthma treatment. He holds a therapeutic use exemption for its use, but he exceeded the permitted level of 1,000 nanograms/millileter. Well, there goes the top sprinter in the Tour. I'll still watch, though. I just got back on my bike the other day for the first time in ages, and on the 4th I went with Tory for a climb up Malibu Canyon Road. That climb kicked my butt all over the road but I survived to summit.


Crazy battle at Kruger National Park in Africa, caught on video. Some unlikely twists and turns. I think I caught Jeff Van Gundy in there, hanging onto the leg of a Cape Buffalo. I've seen enough specials to know that Cape Buffalo never leave a man behind (thx to Mark for the referral).






Verizon COO Jack Plating sends internal memo titled iWhatever, throws out some brave talk in the face of the iPhone. He is true in that the network is Verizon's first and most powerful advantage. But Verizon handsets are not impressive at all.


I had lunch with Robert today, and the cafe was broadcasting highlights from Wimbledon. We were talking about Federer's loss in the French Open final to Nadal, and Robert thought that a big problem is that Federer was not extending on his first serve. He was keeping his first serve motion in too close, resulting in his ghastly first serve percentage. You wouldn't be able to tell from the final score, but based on the % of points Federer won on his first serve, he would have won that much had his first serve gone in more. One of these years, Federer will break through against Nadal at the French. He's played well enough to do so in the past, but it just hasn't happened there at Philippe Chatrier.


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Video 3-pack

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I got a crush on Obama (Youtube video) - goodness gracious.


How to wash your filthy keyboard? Put it through the dishwasher (Quicktime). Looks light it actually works with the right types of keyboards.


A quick tease of a trailer for Pixar's next animated movie Wall-E (next movie after Ratatouille, that is).


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The magic lasso

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I've long thought that pickup basketball provided the ultimate insight into a man's soul. What can we tell about Barack Obama by his pickup ball demeanor?


On the court, Mr. Obama is confident, even a bit boastful.



“If he would hit a couple buckets, he would let you know about it,” said Alexi Giannoulias, who played in the late 1990s with Mr. Obama at the East Bank Club, a luxurious spot in downtown Chicago.



He is gentleman enough to call fouls on himself: Steven Donziger, a law school classmate, has heard Mr. Obama mutter, “my bad,” tossing the other team the ball.



But “he knew how to get in the mix when he needed to,” Mr. Giannoulias said. “There are always elbows, there’s always a little bit of jersey tucking and tugging,” he said, continuing, “Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do to win.”



“Most of the guys who played in our little circle are former players in college or pros,” said Mr. Robinson, who is still Princeton’s fourth-leading scorer of all time. “They’re real high level.”



Mr. Obama cannot match their technical prowess, say those who played regularly with him. But he is fiercely competitive, and makes up for his deficits with collaboration and strategy. “He’s very good at finding a way to win when he’s playing with people who are supposedly stronger,” Mr. Nesbitt said.


The trope for assessing your sister's potential husband is to take him out for a drink, but far better, I think, to take him to a competitive pickup basketball game and see how he reacts. I suspect the disarming quality of pickup hoops has to do with the pace of the game and the instinctive behavior of people when their competitive juices are flowing (which is why board games are often a decent proxy). Obama's wife also believed in the power to discern a man's personality on the court:


Cut to the future Mrs. Obama asking her brother to take her new boyfriend out on the court, to make sure he was not the type to hog the ball or call constant fouls.

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Memorial Day weekend

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I am really sick: eyes watering, nose running, throat burning. My sinuses and chest are so congested I feel like I'm breathing through one of those coffee straws. A lot of people at school seem to be sick; one professor just canceled a class tomorrow morning. It's odd to see a cold seize hold around school when the weather is 70 degrees and sunny every day.


I have not slept as much or as regularly this quarter, and this weekend was really packed. Perhaps the lack of sleep has compromised my immune system. Whatever the cause, here's a sick day worth's of content.


Saturday I spent as 1st AC (assistant cameraperson) on a classmate's shoot. Since this was a reshoot, we had the luxury of a 2nd AC, and it made life a lot easier. Last quarter we had one AC per shoot, and that's a lot of work for one person. You have to load and download film, take focus measurements, guard the camera, swap lenses, check the gate, clean filters, move the camera into position, swap the camera from sticks to dolly and back, pull focus, keep a camera log, set the T-stop on the lens, run a stopwatch on shots to calculate how much film was run and how much is left, mark and clap the slate, write camera reports, and more. It's a very technical position, but I enjoy it. The day started early, with a 5AM alarm buzzing in my ear. When I got home at the end of the day, I told myself I'd take a quick nap and then head out to meet up with a few friends. I woke up at 5AM the next morning.


Sunday was spent at a wedding in Laguna Beach. I know nothing about the city other than what I'd seen on a few episodes of that MTV show of the same name (that show was shot beautifully on Panasonic Varicams, I believe). I'm not sure the city had any say in the matter, but that show forever cemented that town's image among most of America as the place where wealthy, self-absorbed teenagers ply their Machiavellian schemes to climb the social ladder.


Monday, on a last-minute suggestion from Mark, I attended the last day of the Star Wars convention at the LA convention center (the official title of the event was Star Wars Celebration IV). I consider myself a moderate Star Wars fans (enjoyed eps IV-VI, watched eps I-III out of devotion), but next to the types of fanatics you'd imagine at a gathering like this, I felt like Paris Hilton at a Mensa meeting.




At one T-shirt booth I asked a vendor if she had a particular Boba Fett t-shirt in large.


"Which one?" she barked.


"The second one from the right, top row?" I replied, taken aback by her hostile demeanor. She looked over her shoulder and then back down at some book she was reading.


"That's Jango Fett," she muttered, and paid me no further attention. Oops.


This being the last day of the convention, the schedule was very light on Lucasfilm-generated content. Most things to see were created by vendors or fans, from droids, action figures, and models to fan films and costumes. One room featured dozens of decorated Darth Vader helmets, much like the ubiquitous cows that appeared on city sidewalks a few years back. Darth as Lady Liberty? Or the Unabomber?






At another booth, as I looked over some artwork, a boy of about 8 or 9 years old walked behind me holding a yoda lightsaber, one of the ones that lights up and makes lightsaber sounds when swung through the air. A booth clerk, in his early forties, stopped the boy.


"The yoda lightsaber?" nodded the man in approval. "Strong choice."


"It's my first one," said the boy, beaming.


"That one's very light," the man explained. "Good for people who use a one-handed fighting technique, like me." He proceeded to demonstrate with some shadow-fencing, but one of his parries smacked me in the back of my head.


"Sorry, man," he said.


"Easy there, Jedi," I said, rubbing my head.




I watched a couple of fan films in the screening room. The ones I saw were all 2005 award winners. "One Season More" is an animated short that imagines Luke Skywalker's yearning to leave Tatooine as a musical number. It has the suitable mix of love and satire that characterizes the best of fan homages. It's one portion of Star Wars The Musical. This year's winners and entries can be seen at AtomFilms.


No plans for a new Star Wars movie were unveiled, but one welcome bit of news was the announcement of a new CG series from Lucasfilm Animation: The Clone Wars. Here's a sneak peek. I really enjoyed the last animated series, Star Wars - Clone Wars, Vol. 1 and Star Wars - Clone Wars, Vol. 2. This looks to be in that style.


Tuesday morning and early afternoon I spent at Disneyland with Alan, Sharon, and my two nephews Ryan and Evan. What do Disney and Lucas have in common? Both appropriated stories and built entertainment empires. Lucas took strands of Japanese film and set them in another universe (Lucas was originally supposed to direct Apocalypse Now, and Star Wars is his version of that movie, about how a small force--the Rebels--can overcome a larger force--the Empire--through sheer force of will). Disney took Grimm's fairy tales, which were indeed grim, and gave them happier endings and an animated life.


Since the last time I visited Disneyland, over 10 years ago, the most apparent change is that the price of admission has more than doubled. But seeing it all through my nephew Ryan's eyes helped me to appreciate just how enduring a piece of culture Disney built. He was so excited he was a live wire--no nap needed on this day.


While sitting with my nephew on It's A Small World, he almost jumped out of the boat he was so pumped up. That ride doesn't look like it's been updated one bit since my parents took me on it when I was a child (I thought perhaps we'd see young children in India answering customer service phones, or Chinese kids sewing Nikes, but the ride retains its idyllic view of the world), and yet it still kills with youngsters.


Something I wondered while wandering the park: what happened to the Mickey Mouse Club? Why isn't that show still running? Look at some of the talent that came out of the sixth and seventh seasons of the most recent incarnation of the show, which ended in 1994: Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, Justin Timberlake, and Ryan Gosling. That's the pop music equivalent of the 2003 NBA Draft that produced Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh, among others. The Mickey Mouse Club was so competitive that Jessica Simpson and Matt Damon failed to make the cut. I'm not sure why they ceded that space to the likes of American Idol. If Disney doesn't bring back that show, I hope they've at least retained the services of the casting director/talent scout.


------------------------------------


I miss walking the streets of NYC. Google Maps Street View allows me to revisit old favorites. Here's my old apartment.


Microsoft Surface, coming Winter 2007, is one of the early products pointing towards the gesture-manipulated touchscreen interface seen in Minority Report.


An upcoming June software upgrade will allow it you to watch YouTube videos on the AppleTV.


The 2007 Cannes Film Festival winners. From what I've heard from folks who attended, the lineup of movies was very strong this year.


Christopher Nolan is going to shoot some of The Dark Knight in IMAX format. Most features that have been projected in IMAX theatres are simply 35mm films blown up. Since they weren't framed for the IMAX theater, I find many scenes incomprehensible unless you're sitting in the back row. Audiences viewing The Dark Knight at an IMAX theater will see the movie switch aspect ratios from whatever the 35mm aspect ratio is to 1.43 to 1 when the IMAX scenes come on screen.


Based on Gallup Polls, America is willing to elect a black or a woman for president, but if you're gay or an atheist (or both, I presume) your time has not come.


Darren Aronofsky disses the DVD for his movie The Fountain. It doesn't have a commentary, but Aronofsky has said he recorded one himself and will post it online soon so you can listen to it while watching the movie.


as many of you can tell it is light on the extras as compared to my previous dvd releases.



everything at the studio was a struggle.

for instance: they didn't want to do a commentary track cause they felt that it wouldn't help sales.

i didn't have it in me to fight anymore.

whatever.



so:

niko, my friend who did the doc on the dvd came up with a novel idea.

we recorded a commentary track ourselves.

we're gonna post it on a site soon, http coming soon.

you can play it and watch the flick and hopefully you'll enjoy it.

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Trying to laugh through the tears

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Next year, I'm mailing my taxes via UPS or Fedex. Still fuming and on hold waiting for various financial institutions to answer their customer service lines and resend my 1099's. Argh. But through the tears, perhaps a few nuggets of laughter...


The Apple iRack.


Google Maps directions for New York, NY to Paris, France...skip ahead to step 23 (via a Sports Guy reader)


Also funny, from the same Sports Guy column, this box score from the San Antonio-Phoenix NBA game. Skip down to Robert Horry's line for the Spurs.


Ryanair CEO vows to offer flights from the U.S. to the UK for less than $10.30. You'd probably pay more because Ryanair charges for all sorts of basics a la carte, but still.


Some progress today in the fight against global warming.


Jackie and Jet team up (with an assist from Yuen Woo Ping). It would have been a dream of a pairing if they two of them were about 10 to 15 years younger, but we'll take what we can get. Meanwhile, the Weinstein Co. could use some wire work.


Tiger Woods Reveals He Is Zach Johnson.




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The warrior and the priest

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A leading argument among Obama skeptics is his weak showing versus Clinton among blue-collar voters. The op-ed notes that presidential candidates often fall into one of two camps, warriors and priests.


In modern times, the Democratic presidential race has usually pitted a warrior against a priest.



Warrior candidates stress their ability to deliver on kitchen table concerns and revel in political combat. They tout their experience and flout their scars. Their greatest strength is usually persistence, not eloquence; they don't so much inspire as reassure. Think of Harry Truman in 1948, Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and, in a somewhat more diluted fashion, Walter Mondale in 1984 and John Kerry in 2004.



The priests, whose lineage runs back through McCarthy to Adlai Stevenson, present a very different face. They write books and sometimes verse. They observe the campaign's hurly-burly through a filter of cool, witty detachment. Their campaigns become crusades, fueled as much by inchoate longing for a "new politics" as tangible demands for new policies. In the past quarter of a century, Hart, Bradley and the late neo-liberal Paul Tsongas in 1992 each embodied the priest in Democratic presidential politics.



Some candidates transcend these divisions. In 1968, Robert F. Kennedy was a warrior who quoted Aeschylus. Bill Clinton blended a warrior's resiliency with a priest's promise of transformative ("third way") politics. But most Democratic candidates fall clearly on one or the other side of this divide.



Hillary Clinton has firmly positioned herself as a warrior. She wowed the firefighters' convention not through eloquence but passionate declarations of shared commitments. "You were there when we needed you, and I want you to know I will be there when you need me," she insisted. Her campaign already views non-college voters, especially women, as the foundation of her coalition. Her stump speech, centered on a promise to represent "invisible" Americans, targets the economic anxieties of blue-collar families.



Obama's aides resist the collar, but in the early stages, he looks more like a priest. He's written two bestselling books. Like McCarthy, Hart and Howard Dean, he's ignited a brush fire on college campuses. His initial message revolves heavily around eloquent but somewhat amorphous promises of reform and civic renewal. He laments "the smallness of our politics … where power is always trumping principle."


Intrade prediction markets as of today have Clinton at 48.5% of being the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee. Obama's odds took a big hit today, dropping 4.6% to 25.2%. Meanwhile, Giuliani is at 40.6% and McCain is down to 23.4%, having lost a ton of ground to Giuliani during 2007.


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Early line on '08 election, Oscars

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The NYTimes recently profiled Intrade, a site that acts as a prediction market by allowing trading on political, financial, entertainment, and other events. The Iowa Electronic Markets didn't do so hot in the '04 election, as I recall, but I still have a fair level of confidence in the accuracy of prediction markets.


Intrade's most traded contracts are those for the '08 election, and as of today, the odds look like this:


Chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee:

51.5% Hillary Clinton

22.0% Barack Obama

11.7% John Edwards

7.0% Al Gore

0.7% Mark Warner

0.3% John Kerry



Chance of being the Republican Presidential Nominee

34.0% John McCain

26.8% Rudy Giuliani

18.6% Mitt Romney

1.1% Condoleeza Rice


As for the Oscars, according to Intrade it doesn't appear there will be much suspense on Oscar Night in any major categy except Best Picture, perhaps. The other categories seem locked up already (best actress and actor having been decided so long ago that to cut down on the runtime of the show they should probably just have Helen Mirren and Forrest Whitaker on stage to present themselves with the trophies):

Best Director - Scorsese is trading at 79.1%

Best Actor - Whitaker at 82.0%

Best Actress - Mirren at 91.5%

Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy at 60.5%

Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson is around 77 or 78% in light trading


An Inconvenient Truth should have no problems in the Best Documentary category, either. The volume of trading on the Oscars is so light, however, that I'd take the absolute %'s with a grain of salt.


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A dirty, poorly lit place

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I'm in a dark dark place that I'll just refer to as pre-production. What I wouldn't give to have a line producer or two working for me. It's going to be a long, sleepless week and a half.


So while I'm in this dark dark place, I'll probably go dark here as well. Looks as if the New Yorker has a few interesting articles. Here are some of those and well as a handful of others for you to read while I try to fight my way to freedom.


It takes guts to speak out against Vladimir Putin.


"Good People" is a new short story by David Foster Wallace.


From the archives: David Remnick interviews Barack Obama.


Revisiting Obama at Harvard Law School: a preview of how he'd be as a candidate? (NYTimes)


Bruce Schneier speaks of the value of security theater. (Wired)


Free Font Manifesto.


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