Trying to game Intrade

A single investor tried to provide Romney with a boost on Intrade after the last Presidential debate. Spending around $17,800, the investor managed to push Romney's chances of winning the election from 40% to 48%. The lift lasted just six minutes before Romney's chances dropped back to 41%.

Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution commented on a similar tactic in the last Presidential election:

This supports Robin Hanson’s and Ryan Oprea’s finding that manipulation can improve prediction markets — the reason is that manipulation offers informed investors a free lunch … The more manipulation, therefore, the greater the expected profit from betting according to rational expectations.

Seems like a bad investment, though if it's a Romney crony, $17,800 may just be something found under a sofa cushion.

A better investment would be to try and bribe Nate Silver. If Silver said Romney's chances of winning the election had jumped to almost 50% I'd have a heart attack. As it is, I'm nervous as hell that that crazy liar Romney might actually pull off the upset.