Trampled by elephants

American Voice 2004 provides a good overview of conservative and liberal stances on a broad list of issues.
James Surowiecki on convention economics. Me, I'm glad to be away from NYC during the RNC.
A Yale economist has built a regression-based model which he claims is quite accurate. It predicts Bush will win 58% of the vote in capturing the 2004 election. The usual caveats about regression models apply (you can tinker with regressions until they do a great job predicting the past, but that's no guarantee that the same equation and variables are a great predictor of the future). Meanwhile, The Iowa Electronic Markets now grant Bush a substantial lead in the 2004 election winner-takes-all market (a $1 share of Bush pays some $0.55 while a $1 Kerry share only pays $0.45). It's amazing that the Republicans, with a candidate who likely tried to get out of serving in the military, could put the Democrats, with a candidate who has medals up the yin yang, on the defensive and center all media coverage on the validity of Kerry's decorations. And then Bush comes in and tries to take the high ground by urging a halt to 527's and to any questioning of Kerry's military record. If Bush and his allies were behind the Swift Vet attacks, it was a masterful campaign gambit.