Forecast: high chance of precipitation

Played in a simplified, run-first, dive-option read offense with very basic high-low reads. Worked exclusively out of the gun and was very quick to run at the first flash of coverage. Limited field vision — does not process the passing game. Inconsistent throwing mechanics with a flick delivery — generates all of his power from his upper-body strength and too often arms the ball. Streaky passer with spotty accuracy. Makes his receivers work hard and throws into coverage. Does not spin a tight spiral. Very disingenuous — has a fake smile, comes off as very scripted and has a selfish, me-first makeup. Always knows where the cameras are and plays to them. Has an enormous ego with a sense of entitlement that continually invites trouble and makes him believe he is above the law — does not command respect from teammates and always will struggle to win a locker room. Only a one-year producer. Lacks accountability, focus and trustworthiness — is not punctual, seeks shortcuts and sets a bad example. Immature and has had issues with authority. Not dependable.

And more:​

Can provide an initial spark, but will quickly be dissected and contained by NFL defensive coordinators, struggle to sustain success and will not prove worthy of an early investment. An overhyped, high-risk, high-reward selection with a glaring bust factor, Newton is sure to be drafted more highly than he should and could foreclose a risk-taking GM's job and taint a locker room.

​This is all from Pro Football Weekly's scouting report on Cam Newton from March 2011. Italics are mine, as the GM of the Carolina Panthers did get fired yesterday. And he's been leading the front pages of sports pages, like this one on the top of ESPN today, in articles that note that Newton "sometimes comes off as someone more concerned with his own performance than his team's record." Teammates Steve Smith has called him out for his attitude, "I told [Cam] 'You can get some mental reps or you can sit on that bench and sulk.'"

Just a long way of saying it took a year, but that Pro Football Weekly scouting report looks like it was spot on.​

Trying to game Intrade

A single investor tried to provide Romney with a boost on Intrade after the last Presidential debate. Spending around $17,800, the investor managed to push Romney's chances of winning the election from 40% to 48%.​ The lift lasted just six minutes before Romney's chances dropped back to 41%.

Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution commented on a similar tactic in the last Presidential election:​

This supports Robin Hanson’s and Ryan Oprea’s finding that manipulation can improve prediction markets — the reason is that manipulation offers informed investors a free lunch … The more manipulation, therefore, the greater the expected profit from betting according to rational expectations.

​Seems like a bad investment, though if it's a Romney crony, $17,800 may just be something found under a sofa cushion.

A better investment would be to try and bribe Nate Silver. If Silver said Romney's chances of winning the election had jumped to almost 50% I'd have a heart attack. As it is, I'm nervous as hell that that crazy liar Romney might actually pull off the upset.​

The Weeknd - Trilogy

The Weeknd is the stage name of Canadian R&B singer Abel Tesfaye. Marie introduced me to him a while ago, and his first three albums topped the charts in Eugene's driving soundtrack for months on end.​ Tesfaye has a great voice, and his music just sounds...dangerous. Naughty. A cocktail of drugs and sex.

He released his first three albums for free on the web at his website, and you don't have to look far to find them. But much to my joy, he's issuing a remastered version of his trilogy with 3 bonus tracks on a CD titled simply Trilogy.​ I know, I'm one of the 7 people in the world who still buy CDs, but only as a delivery mechanism for higher quality digital audio files. MP3s make my ears bleed, and Tesfaye's voice deserves better.

Besides, $11.99 for the equivalent of 3 full-length CDs of stuff this good is a bargain.