The ultimate nightmare scenario for the BP spill

I hate to point people to a possibility so depressing and horrifying, but this recent anonymous comment at The Oil Drum speculates that the BP oil spill may be unstoppable now because the well is leaking down below the surface. Even if we cap the well, it will just leak from far below the surface, and before all is said and done, almost 2 billion barrels may leak out.



I took some time to go into a bit of detail concerning the failure of Top Kill because this was a significant event. To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, it was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.


What does this mean?


It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad, same dynamics.




Now, this is just an anonymous comment, and I am the furthest thing from an oil drilling expert. If someone credible debunks this comment, no one would be happier than me. But until that happens, if ever, I'll feel a crushing helplessness.




The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...


We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.


We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....




There will be blood, indeed.



Ludo's Ham Soup

I ate at the fourth incarnation of Chef Ludo Lefebvre's pop-up restaurant LudoBites (named like software simply as LudoBites 4.0) exactly four times (no one on Yelp checked in more, and by my last visit Ludo was greeting me with raised eyebrows and a "You again Eugène?!").


The web has given pop-ups a bad name, but Chef Ludo just might salvage the word. Food trucks were all the rage in the last two years in LA, but I'll take pop-up restaurants over a food truck any day of the week if it's of the same caliber as the LudoBites experience: no corkage fee, a rotating menu of original dishes, and the feeling of taking in something temporary, never to be recreated. The four meals I had there with four different groups of people were among the most fun culinary outings I've had, not just in LA, but anywhere.


Ludo may come off as a whiny snob on Top Chef Masters, but the few times I've met him he's never been anything less than friendly and amusing. I'll never forget my last visit, when he stopped by our table to chat, spotted something out the restaurant's glass door entrance, and then turned as pale as a ghost sprinted back into the kitchen with a brief "I must go!" Jonathan Gold strolled into the restaurant ten seconds later and all was clear. When Jonathan Gold comes for his fried chicken, all else recedes.


One of the highlights of the LudoBites 4.0 menu was his foie gras croque monsieur, the foie gras sandwiched between two pieces of bread dyed black with squid ink. But my personal favorite was Chef Ludo's ham soup (recipe), one of the all-time great soups of my lifetime (and I am something of a soup junkie). All you need to know about the recipe is that it begins thus:



11 tablespoons (scant 1 1/2 sticks) butter, divided



Editor in Chief (no really, he is the Chief)

I would apologize for my lack of posts recently, but I'm not entirely sure who expects my writing here to be higher on the stack than work and other personal obligations. Maybe I'm apologizing mostly to myself. I promise I have a pile of draft posts piled high, all half finished, so the good intentions are there.


Anyhoo.


My posting infrequency is related to this post in that I do tend to rewrite longer form posts that land here. That's in contrast to the less filtered copy that flows through to my Twitter account, though even there I am sensitive to flooding my followers with too much personal ephemera.


Rewriting is an underrated commodity in this new age of instant publishing. Most of us have been our own copy editors for years, but with the web disseminating writing further afield, any laziness on that front pollutes a wider mind mass.


That's one reason I find this photo so heartwarming. If you don't recognize it, this is Obama's speech on health care reform to a Joint Session of Congress. The photo is even more fascinating blown up large so you can read the individual edits that I presume Obama sent to speechwriter Jon Favreau. It's a fascinating insight into Obama's communications strategy when you see him replacing "compassion" with "concern and regard for the plight of others" or replacing "character of this country" with "American character." He has a knack for verbal pacing and poetic turns of phrase, as when he flips "This has always been our history" to "This has always been the history of our progress.


If there was any lingering doubt about Obama's writing skills despite the two polished books to his credit, this should serve as an adequate response, though still I hear silly teleprompter chatter from the peanut gallery. Any real writer will tell you how much of writing is actually rewriting, and how much of growing as a writer is a willingness to abandon, at times, entire days worth of work once you've been able to cut the emotional umbilical cord and regard the work with the sage objectivity of a copy editor.


In contrast, I offer you Sarah Palin's Twitter stream. Some of this is the medium and 140 character limit, to be sure, but the prose style is that of a teenage girl. It's not as if others aren't working under the same constraints.


Mind Heist

One of the reasons the trailer for Inception is so effective is the sturm und drang music behind the eye-catching visuals. It leaves one with the feeling that Inception will be the most momentous movie of the summer. The track isn't by Hans Zimmer, who's scoring the movie, but by Zack Hemsey, and it's called "Mind Heist."

<a href="http://music.zackhemsey.com/track/mind-heist">Mind Heist by Zack Hemsey</a>


Songs sung worse

Lee Dewyze sang three mediocre to poor cover songs last night, and for that he was crowned American Idol tonight. As John August termed it last night, the mediocriterrorists won.


Nothing against Dewyze, who seems like a genuinely good guy and whose rise from paint store salesman is a great story. But Crystal Bowersox was the most consistent performer throughout the season, and she sang circles around Dewyze in the finals. It's not just that Dewyze was "pitchy" (trademark Randy Jackson) -- I couldn't help but grimace when Dewyze was given the line "what would you do if I sang out of tune" in tonight's final episode -- but he was also closed off, inaccessible and detached as a performer.


Two years running, the people ignored the judges and crowned the lesser talent. Maybe Simon Cowell decided "to hell with the people, I'll go start a show where the voters listen to me."


Well, as with so many things in life, the voters get what they deserve. As for Bowersox and Bowersox nation, take solace in thinking about where Dubya and Gore each ended up in the long run.


Real drama

This Ask Metafilter thread made the news recently. To read through the hundreds of comments in this thread is to follow a sex trafficking drama that stretches across continents. The only way it could have been more suspenseful is if I'd been following the thread as it unfolded and not after the fact.


Somedays, it seems like the Internet is just a megaphone for people to complain and tear down, but then I read something like this and remember why it's one of the greatest inventions in my lifetime.


Ask Culture vs Guess Culture

I don't use Metafilter as often as I once did, so it's easy to forget how many little gems are buried in its comment strings. I'd never seen this one before, though it's something of a classic from what I've gathered from other web references.



This is a classic case of Ask Culture meets Guess Culture.


In some families, you grow up with the expectation that it's OK to ask for anything at all, but you gotta realize you might get no for an answer. This is Ask Culture.


In Guess Culture, you avoid putting a request into words unless you're pretty sure the answer will be yes. Guess Culture depends on a tight net of shared expectations. A key skill is putting out delicate feelers. If you do this with enough subtlety, you won't even have to make the request directly; you'll get an offer. Even then, the offer may be genuine or pro forma; it takes yet more skill and delicacy to discern whether you should accept.


All kinds of problems spring up around the edges. If you're a Guess Culture person -- and you obviously are -- then unwelcome requests from Ask Culture people seem presumptuous and out of line, and you're likely to feel angry, uncomfortable, and manipulated.


If you're an Ask Culture person, Guess Culture behavior can seem incomprehensible, inconsistent, and rife with passive aggression.



[by Metafilter user Tangerine]


 


The Restaurateur

The NY incarnation of Eater got a preview of Roger Sherman's documentary about Danny Meyer titled The Restaurateur.


Sherman was fortunate that his documentary spanned one of the more interesting resurrections of Meyer's career, the turnaround of Eleven Madison Park from a two star to a four star restaurant. At the core of that was the difficult decision to replace chef Kerry Heffernan with Daniel Humm.


Heffernan was the chef there when I lived in NYC, and I ate at Eleven Madison Park twice. It had the usual polished service of a Danny Meyer restaurant, but the food didn't have the wow factor that foodies demand.


The last time I was in NYC, I was surprised to hear a friend who was a very particular diner suggest Eleven Madison park for a dinner. I didn't realize the chef had changed and that Bruni had given the new incarnation four stars.


NY Eater quotes Meyer:



The New York Times gets a new restaurant critic Frank Bruni, and he gives it yet another two star review and it was crushing. It started to dawn on me that something was really going to have to change. I love Kerry. Every time he did a big party people said it was the best party they had ever gone to. So I asked if he would become the opening chef for Hudson Yards, our catering company. That gave me the chance to say it's not a brasserie. It is a gorgeous, stately, grand restaurant. And what we really need to do is to go out and find somebody who's cooking is the right piece of art for this frame.



Transformation is difficult, especially for successful incumbents. Next time I'm in NYC, I will have to pay another visit to Eleven Madison Park, which cracked the S. Pellegrino Top 50 Restaurants list for the first time this year, sneaking into the last slot.


Joe Wong

It's always a bit embarrassing when your dad is sending you links to things you don't know about yet, and more importantly, enjoy. Perhaps the only standup comedian both my dad and I are huge fans of: Joe Wong.


My friend and I had a debate about Wong. He was conflicted because Wong's speaking style perpetuates some caricatures of Asian-Americans. My argument in support of Wong is that his ability to produce such sharp satire despite his strong ethnic markers helps to undermine the myth that a sophisticated comprehension of government and its foibles has to come from a white who speaks perfect English.


I actually am not sure how Joe Wong speaks normally. Is this all an act? Regardless, I laughed, and it didn't feel as if I was laughing at him.









Learnings from Dropbox

I really enjoyed this presentation from Drew Houston, CEO of Dropbox, an online storage service I've been using for many months now. It covers what they learned on their rapid ascent to success. Among them is the fact that most of their customers have been acquired via referral. Example in point: my endorsement here.


I liked this quote:



SEM is a way to harvest demand, not create it.



That's something that may be evident to those who've purchased AdWords on Google before, but it may not be to the newcomer to SEM. If a user is doing a directed search on Google, it will take a hell of a lot more than a short headline and two line text ad to pry them away from their mission. If your result matches what they're searching for, great, but you can't generate much emotional appeal in two lines of text.


When Apple debuts it's iAd product on the next iPhone OS, you can be sure they'll have worked with some advertisers to debut some eye-popping, emotional, beautifully designed ads. A quick look back at Apple's ad campaigns, from 1984 to Think Different to "I'm a Mac" to its iPod silhouettes, is ample evidence that Apple knows emotional advertising. In their rivalry with Google, it makes sense that Apple would attack Google's core revenue product by differentiating its product on the dimension of design and emotion.


Can your product, in two lines of text in a Google ad, be exactly what a user is searching for? Or does it require sight, sound, and motion to explain what your product is and what it does? Or is your product good enough to mobilize an army of evangelists? It helps to answer that before you choose where and how to advertise.



Clash of the Titans

Try to not look at the title of the video below and just click on the play button. By consensus, the best poker player in the world, Phil Ivey, faces off against my current favorite hold-em player, Tom Dwan, aka Durrr, in an unbelievable hand of poker this season in High Stakes Poker. It helps to know a lot about hold-em strategy to truly appreciate what happens, but at this level of money (this is a cash game, not a tournament, so you have to put up the exact amount of your bet) anyone will be impressed, unless perhaps you're Bill Gates and this is the daily interest on your backup savings account.









Only in this day and age, only here

I heard Chef Ludo Lefebvre was going to be at Akasha tonight via his Twitter account. I booked a reservation via OpenTable. At dinner, I saw Jonathan Gold, who I recognized from a food fair a year or so ago where he was a celebrity guest. After our meal, we met Chef Ludo, who we recognized from his stint on Top Chef and who I'd seen working in a food truck at a street food truck festival from a month or so ago. We chatted with him about the marathon he ran yesterday, which I'd heard about via, yes, his Twitter account.


Celebrity chefs, celebrity food critics. It's a story that only makes sense in this moment, this place.



Computer game theory models

This article is months old, but I haven't had a NYTimes subscription in over a year now, so I miss out on some articles some Sundays. I mentioned Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's models recently when 538.com used an online version of his model to predict the outcome of the HCR battle, but this article goes into more depth about its origins and why it is effective.



That’s where Bueno de Mesquita began programming his computer model. It is based loosely on Black’s voter theory, and it works like this: To predict how leaders will behave in a conflict, Bueno de Mesquita starts with a specific prediction he wants to make, then interviews four or five experts who know the situation well. He identifies the stakeholders who will exert pressure on the outcome (typically 20 or 30 players) and gets the experts to assign values to the stakeholders in four categories: What outcome do the players want? How hard will they work to get it? How much clout can they exert on others? How firm is their resolve? Each value is expressed as a number on its own arbitrary scale, like 0 to 200. (Sometimes Bueno de Mesquita skips the experts, simply reads newspaper and journal articles and generates his own list of players and numbers.) For example, in the case of Iran’s bomb, Bueno de Mesquita set Ahmadinejad’s preferred outcome at 180 and, on a scale of 0 to 100, his desire to get it at 90, his power at 5 and his resolve at 90.


Then the math begins, some of which is surprisingly simple. If you merely sort the players according to how badly they want a bomb and how much support they have among others, you will end up with a reasonably good prediction. But the other variables enable the computer model to perform much more complicated assessments. In essence, it looks for possible groupings of players who would be willing to shift their positions toward one another if they thought that doing so would be to their advantage. The model begins by working out the average position of all the players — the “middle ground

Interview with Tony Judt

Excerpt from the interview:



In the introduction to ‘Reappraisals’ you write that people prefer to describe unpleasant political situations in language that makes them somehow more tolerable. In Iran people used to say they lived in a ‘limited democracy’, before it became clear just how limited it was. What kinds of linguistic subterfuge do we practise in Europe and America?


In America the misuse of language is usually cultural rather than political. People will accuse Obama of being a socialist. Italians would say magari – if only. However, no one takes this very seriously. What we have instead in the US is cultural communities policing what can and can’t be said, and that shapes how we define difference. The idea is that you can’t have an elite, since elitism is undemocratic and unegalitarian. Therefore, you always make the point that people are in some important way the same. If they are badly disabled like me, they are ‘differently abled’, which I find very amusing. It is not a ‘different’ ability: it is no ability. But since it’s politically uncomfortable to distinguish between people who can do things and people who can’t, the latter are described as separate but equal. There are numerous things wrong with this: first, it is lousy language; second, it creates the illusion of sameness or achievement in its absence; third, it conceals the effects of real power and capacity, real wealth and influence. You describe everyone as having the same chances when actually some people have more chances than others. And with this cheating language of equality deep inequality is allowed to happen much more easily.


In Britain the most striking abuse of language is the redefinition of private, for-profit economic activities as services provided by the state. A concrete example is the way private entrepreneurs were given the right to run old people’s homes. However, no one wants to spell that out, which is why they are described as ‘delivering’ the service, as if they were the milkman bringing milk to old people. It prevents people from fully grasping that the state has handed over its mandate of responsibility to a private actor, whose motivation is to provide the cheapest possible service and make the most money.



That last paragraph is an argument for the HCR plan the Obama Administration is trying to pass. As Nicholas Kristof notes in a NYTimes Op-Ed today, recounting a tragic story about one neighbor who contracted stomach cancer, leaving some decisions in the hands of insurance companies, where the profit motive is supreme, is a recipe for tragedy.



Opponents of the reform proposals argue: If you like the Department of Motor Vehicles, you’ll love Obamacare. But as the drama of Zack and Jan shows, the only bureaucrats more obdurate than those at the D.M.V. are the ones working for insurance companies. The existing system is preposterous: we rely on insurance companies whose business model is based on accepting premiums from healthy people and devising ways to exclude from coverage those who most desperately need medical care.



As Krugman wrote on Friday, "In every other advanced nation, insurance coverage is available to everyone regardless of medical history. Our system is unique in its cruelty."


Another excerpt of note from the Judt interview:



If there seems to be one thing missing among today’s politicians, it is courage. It is considered idealistic, even naive.


Courage is always missing in politicians. It is like saying basketball players aren’t normally short. It isn’t a useful attribute. To be morally courageous is to say something different, which reduces your chances of winning an election. Courage is in a funny way more common in an old-fashioned sort of enlightened dictatorship than it is in a democracy. However, there is another factor. My generation has been catastrophic. I was born in 1948 so I am more or less the same age as George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Gerhard Schröder, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – a pretty crappy generation, when you come to think of it, and many names could be added. It is a generation that grew up in the 1960s in Western Europe or in America, in a world of no hard choices, neither economic nor political. There were no wars they had to fight. They did not have to fight in the Vietnam War. They grew up believing that no matter what choice they made, there would be no disastrous consequences. The result is that whatever the differences of appearance, style and personality, these are people for whom making an unpopular choice is very hard.


Someone once said: ‘But Blair’s choice to go to war in Iraq was unpopular with the majority of the population.’ I agree. But what Blair was doing was going for a different kind of popularity – he wanted to show his strength. To do this he had to do something unpopular, yet something that cost him nothing. Doing something unpopular that may cost you your job is much harder. The last generation in America with such courage was probably the generation of Lyndon Johnson. In a funny kind of way Thatcher, whom I certainly do not like, had courage. However, she fits the description of naive and idealistic; I don’t like her ideals, her naivety was a disaster, but it’s still a fair description. Today it is a criticism to describe a politician as idealistic. This is in a way a new phenomenon and it too is born from the fact that Europe has not been involved in wars that would demand the mobilisation of the whole population for over 60 years now. The last time there was such a sustained period of peace was probably the early Middle Ages. Traditionally leaders rose to power through wars or conquest. We have had six, seven generations of leaders who came to power exclusively by political manoeuvring, which is historically very unusual. It’s like inbreeding: there are no external inputs, no new kinds of people, only the political class breeding itself. This isn’t an argument in favour of war, just a historical fact.



Are politicians who vote for HCR today being courageous given the risk of a midterm election revolt, or is it in their interest? We'll see later this year.


Another noteworthy excerpt (I love Judt interviews, he is such a great historian that so much of what he says about Europe resonates with the situation elsewhere, as in the U.S.):



In Greece, we saw mass protests, aimed in part at a neoliberal economic system that has generated increasing inequality and has left young people feeling they have no prospects. Yet there seemed to be an enormous disconnect between the protesters and their government, and an even greater one with Brussels. How have we reached the point where people on the streets don’t matter?


Part of the answer is that this is just as true in big countries. In London there were two million people protesting against the Iraq war, but the government took no notice, and it made no difference at all. So the disconnect is universal. Why? It would be hard to give a complete picture. However, what we might call a ‘connect’ only lasted for a very short time. It began in the late 19th century with mass newspapers, mass literacy, speed and ease of communication and, especially, trains. Governments were forced to be very responsive to popular feeling. They felt very vulnerable. Elections could remove them from power and if elections didn’t work, then the masses on the streets might achieve the same result. After World War Two governments retreated from politics. The French economic plan, for example, was not decided by the parliament, but by administrators and bureaucrats. The EU was institutionally invented by bureaucrats. The first elections were held only in 1979. Until then there were no elections, no polls, no votes, nothing. There was a feeling, partly a consequence of Fascism, that you couldn’t trust mass opinion any more. It was not reliable. Not only were the masses willing to throw you out, they might be willing to overthrow the whole system. Steadily from the 1950s onwards the influence of the street, of the media, newspapers, public opinion, of ideology, was pushed further and further away from the actual decision-making processes. In the end it wouldn’t matter very much anymore if you threw out the government since it wouldn’t change the fundamental policies, institutions, laws of the country or direction of the majority of the issues of public policy.


It’s only now that we are really seeing the results of a process that has been going on for a long time. Much of the 1960s, which I remember as a student, was about the argument that governments were losing touch with popular opinion and preferences, particularly with the young, and that the only way to reconnect was on the street. Now we are realising that even that doesn’t work anymore. The old ways of mass movements, communities organised around an ideology, even religious or political ideas, trade unions and political parties to leverage public opinion into political influence – they are no longer there. Yet you need those levers. Without them people jumping up and down on the street do nothing. They don’t matter even if they are in the capital and even if there are millions of them. We destroyed the levers of popular politics or allowed them to be destroyed. We are left with people as individuals, and when people come together as individuals they can only come together either to do one big demonstration or to communicate through the internet as verbal pressure groups at an election. The combination of the physical mass and political leverage has been lost.



I can't help but think of this when I see news footage of Tea Bagge...err, Party groups standing in D.C. now shouting epithets at House Representatives as they pass through to go vote on HCR. It applies to other issues as well. Despite the ease of coordination afforded activists by the Internet, it rarely feels as if our politicians are listening.



Relationship between happiness and time

Daniel Kahneman gave a talk at TED on the difference between our experiential and our reflective/remembering selves and how they perceive happiness differently. He provides evidence for a saying that has always stuck with me, and that is that being rich isn't guaranteed to make you be happy, but being poor will make you unhappy.



And it turns out that, below an income of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans, and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000, but it's a large representative sample, below an income of 60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat. Clearly, what is happening is money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery, and we can measure that misery very, very clearly. In terms of the other self, the remembering self, you get a different story. The more money you earn the more satisfied you are. That does not hold for emotions.



He also discusses how we often make vacation decisions based on what we think will make us happy (our remembering self) but not what actually will make us happy during the vacation (our experiential self). Also of note: more frequent and shorter vacations are likely to increase happiness more than fewer, longer vacations.


Fascinating.