The curse of discernment

One of my favorite Schwartzisms is this: If you ever aren't sure if you attended the very best party or bought the very best computer, just settle for "good enough." People who do this are called "satisficers," and they're consistently happier, he's found, than are "maximizers," people who feel that they must choose the very best possible option. Maximizers earn more, Schwartz has found, but they're also less satisfied with their jobs. In fact, they're more likely to be clinically depressed in general.
 
The reason this happens, as Schwartz explained in a paper with his Swarthmore colleague Andrew Ward, is that as life circumstances improve, expectations rise. People begin comparing their experiences to peers who are doing better, or to past experiences they've personally had that were better:
 
As people have contact with items of high quality, they begin to suffer from “the curse of discernment.” The lower quality items that used to be perfectly acceptable are no longer good enough. The hedonic zero point keeps rising, and expectations and aspirations rise with it. As a result, the rising quality of experience is met with rising expectations, and people are just running in place. As long as expectations keep pace with realizations, people may live better, but they won’t feel better about how they live.
 

Olga Khazan in The Atlantic on Barry Schwartz and his recommendations for how to avoid the depression that comes from “the curse of discernment.” Stewart is the author of The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less, one of the most cited consumer psychology books of recent memory.

The internet has intensified this curse, no one can make a purchase decision without reading a bunch of reviews online, or Googling “what is the best [X]” and trying to sift through a bunch of spammy websites to find some authoritative-sounding article. After all, the internet has democratized information and put it at our fingertips, isn't it our own fault if we don't own the best SLR or printer or kitchen blender, or if we don't go to the best ramen house in Tokyo on our one visit there?

I will try to take this to heart as maximization can be so contextual as to be meaningless. However, having had so much Korean BBQ in Los Angeles' Koreatown, I'm afraid my hedonic zero point for that cuisine has risen so far from my college days that just about every Korean BBQ restaurant in San Francisco I once loved now seems like a monastic compromise.

Do you see the black and blue?

The dress meme was a bit exasperating for a few days there in its oppressive ubiquity. It was the overexposed photo that launched a thousand think pieces about perception and epistemological humility. If there is an optical illusion hall of fame the dress can assume its position next to old lady/young lady and which line is longer.

I thought I was done with that damn dress forever, but this is a clever newsjacking of the meme by the Salvation Army in South Africa, even if the practice of newsjacking, a term I'd never heard of until I saw this piece, sounds a bit shady, as so many content marketing practices do.

Maybe this is how it ends, with lots of early retirements

Today, Yahoo Sports reported that 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis is retiring at the age of 30. It was a surprise to many that the five-time All Pro and seven-time Pro Bowler would retire with seemingly more good years ahead of him.

With the severity of the physical trauma of football becoming clearer and clearer by the day, I wonder if more and more players will choose to retire earlier in their careers, after accumulating some threshold of wear and tear and/or wealth.

Economically, it makes sense. A star player can make many tens of millions of dollars in a the span of a short career, and even a regular starter can pocket millions. If you are frugal, you'll achieve a very comfortable nest egg. At that point, is each additional marginal million dollars worth perhaps several years of your life, or a remaining lifetime of debilitating pain, or worse?

The more we hear about players suffering terribly in their old age, the more the cost side of the economic equation increases. Given that data, more and more will come to see just how rational Willis' decision is.

UPDATE (16 Mar 2015): Chris Borland of the 49ers announced today that he's retiring after just one season, and a great one, because of concerns over the impact of repetitive head trauma on his health. It's happening even sooner than I anticipated.

"I just honestly want to do what's best for my health," Borland told "Outside the Lines." "From what I've researched and what I've experienced, I don't think it's worth the risk."
 
Borland becomes the most prominent NFL player to leave the game in his prime because of concerns about brain injuries. More than 70 former players have been diagnosed with progressive neurological disease following their deaths, and numerous studies have shown connections between the repetitive head trauma associated with football, brain damage and issues such as depression and memory loss.
 
"I feel largely the same, as sharp as I've ever been. For me, it's wanting to be proactive," Borland said. "I'm concerned that if you wait till you have symptoms, it's too late. ... There are a lot of unknowns. I can't claim that X will happen. I just want to live a long healthy life, and I don't want to have any neurological diseases or die younger than I would otherwise."

I, for one, welcome our new female overlords

The great transformation of the past two centuries—the slow but relentless decline of male supremacy—can be attributed in part to the rise of Enlightenment ideas generally. The liberation of women has advanced alongside the gradual emancipation of serfs, slaves, working people and minorities of every sort. 
 
But the most important factor has been technology, which has made men’s physical strength and martial prowess increasingly obsolete. Male muscle has been replaced to a large extent by machines and robots. Today, women operate fighter jets and attack helicopters, deploying more lethal force than any Roman gladiator or Shogun warrior could dream of. 
 
As women come to hold more power and public authority, will they become just like men? I don’t think so. Show me a male brain, and I will show you a bulging amygdala—the brain’s center of fear and violence—densely dotted with testosterone receptors. Women lack the biological tripwires that lead men to react to small threats with exaggerated violence and to sexual temptation with recklessness.
 

From a good piece on how women are taking more and more leadership positions in the world, and why that's a good thing. The problem with men is testosterone, which manifests in aggression. That may have been useful in a state of constant hand to hand combat war, but it's counterproductive in modern society. When Ali G asked that feminist, “Which is better, man or woman?” it turns out he was on to something, even as she deflected the question.

I suspect the future ideal for humans to emulate in thought and action is a computer, a machine that is immune from the types of logical mistakes driven by emotion and human biology. That ideal brings its own flaws, including software bugs and a lack of some threshold of compassion which humans value so highly, but when it comes to large-scale optimization of measures like happiness, lives saved, misery avoided, computers are likely far superior to human brains.

In fast-paced modern world, no room for slow talkers, slow walkers

Slowness rage is not confined to the sidewalk, of course. Slow drivers, slow Internet, slow grocery lines—they all drive us crazy. Even the opening of this article may be going on a little too long for you. So I’ll get to the point. Slow things drive us crazy because the fast pace of society has warped our sense of timing. Things that our great-great-grandparents would have found miraculously efficient now drive us around the bend. Patience is a virtue that’s been vanquished in the Twitter age.
 
Once upon a time, cognitive scientists tell us, patience and impatience had an evolutionary purpose. They constituted a yin and yang balance, a finely tuned internal timer that tells when we’ve waited too long for something and should move on. When that timer went buzz, it was time to stop foraging at an unproductive patch or abandon a failing hunt.
 
...
 
But that good thing is gone. The fast pace of society has thrown our internal timer out of balance. It creates expectations that can’t be rewarded fast enough—or rewarded at all. When things move more slowly than we expect, our internal timer even plays tricks on us, stretching out the wait, summoning anger out of proportion to the delay.
 
...
 
Make no mistake: Society continues to pick up speed like a racer on Bonneville Speedway. In his book, Social Acceleration: A New Theory of Modernity, Hartmut Rosa informs us that the speed of human movement from pre-modern times to now has increased by a factor of 100. The speed of communications has skyrocketed by a factor of 10 million in the 20th century, and data transmission has soared by a factor of around 10 billion.
 

From Nautilus.

It shouldn't be any surprise that technology has amplified our impatience. Tech companies were among the first to measure and quantify the monetary value of time. Early on at Amazon, we did an A/B test and realized that every additional millisecond of load time in search meant some users would just abandon their shopping session and bounce. The same applied to web pages. I've read that Google learned the same when testing their search results.

I've been listening to more and more podcasts, and to try and finish more of them in my limited free time, I've been dialing up playback speed. At first I was at 1.25X, then 1.5X, and now I can almost listen at 2X and still understand what folks are saying (contrary to popular belief, all decent podcast apps can do this playback without altering the pitch; when I playback at 2X, Marc Maron doesn't sounds like a chipmunk). The unpleasant side effect, though, is that everyone in the real world seems to speak way......too......slowly. I sometimes find myself losing concentration mid-sentence.

I'm in Hawaii for a wedding, and the wifi on the United flight over was the slowest I've ever used on a plane, and I could feel my blood pressure rising as I hit refresh and reload buttons like a rat in a Skinner box. Yes, I've seen the Louis CK clip about this, and yes, this is a problem of entitlement of the highest order, but it isn't going away, it's worsening.

At its worst, impatience can lead to violence. Few sights make me as pessimistic about humanity as a driver exploding in near apoplectic road rage over a delay of a few seconds. I've seen grown adults slam on their brakes, get out of their cars, and engage in fistfights with another driver over the slightest of inconveniences. Forget the zombie apocalypse, simply failing to start moving immediately when the light turns green can reduce civilization to Lord of the Flies in an instant.

The article notes that our internal timers may be overclocked, leading to an acceleration of the vicious cycle of impatience --> rage --> impulsive behavior.

Recent research points to a possibility that could make this cycle worse. As my slow-walking friend and I strolled at a snail’s pace down the street, I started to fear that we would be so late for our reservation that we would miss it. But when we got to the restaurant, we were no more than a couple minutes behind. My sense of time had warped.
 
Why? Rage may sabotage our internal timer. Our experience of time is subjective—it can fly by in a flash, or it can drag out seemingly forever. And strong emotions affect our sense of time most of all, explains Claudia Hammond in her 2012 book Time Warped: Unlocking the Mysteries of Time Perception. “Just as Einstein’s theory of relativity tells us that there is no such thing as absolute time, neither is there an absolute mechanism for measuring time in the brain,” she writes.
 
Time stretches when we are frightened or anxious, Hammond explains. An arachnophobe overestimates the time spent in a room with a spider; a fearful novice skydiver, the time spent hurtling to Earth. People in car accidents report watching events unfold in slow motion. But it’s not because our brains speed up in those situations. Time warps because our experiences are so intense. Every moment when we are under threat seems new and vivid. That physiological survival mechanism amplifies our awareness and packs more memories than usual into a short time interval. Our brains are tricked into thinking more time has passed.
 
On top of that, our brains—in particular, the insular cortex, linked to motor skills and perception—may measure the passing of time in part by integrating many different signals from our bodies, like our heartbeats, the tickle of a breeze on our skin, and the burning heat of rage. In this model, the brain judges time by counting the number of signals it is getting from the body. So if the signals come faster, over a given interval the brain will count more signals, and so it will seem that the interval has taken longer than it actually has.
 

[As an aside, I do love the metaphor for how our bodies measure time, using natural cues like heartbeats, breaths, and other natural cues of cadence.]

With devices like mobile phones and tablets and ubiquitous network connectivity filling every empty moment in our lives, however brief, like water into cracks in the ground, we may be past the point of no return on our ability to live in the moment. Often today I find myself magnetized by people who can sit and chat with me without glancing at their phone every few minutes; they are an increasingly rare species. 

This next generation of kids will grow up with such devices from the moment they can handle one; will any of them escape addiction to the screens around them, or will they regard long face-to-face conversation as an antiquated tradition? Perhaps those who can eschew their phone for long stretches and give their companions their full attention will be seen as superhuman. I've read so many times that Bill Clinton's most amazing gift is his ability to make anyone, no matter how humble, feel like the absolute center of his attention. 

Still, I'm not optimistic. What happens to our impulse control when technologies like virtual reality tempt us every moment with the possibility of going anywhere, experiencing anything, instantaneously? Technology is just beginning to expose the shadow prices of living in the real world, and the profit motive and Moore's Law are working in favor of just one side.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go meditate. Using an app on my iPhone, of course.