The Walking Dead

The Walking Dead is a great piece of pop entertainment. I should clarify, though, that I'm referring to the graphic novel which just passed 100 issues a short while ago. In a series chock full of grim and horrifying developments, issue 100 was one of most brutal, ending with another in a series of emotional punches to the gut.

Zombie apocalypse stories interest me not for the literal mechanics of surviving against flesh-eating zombies but for their exploration of social institutions. They're a magnitude of order more intellectually fascinating to me than modern vampire stories, the other horror movie archetype that just won't die (pun intended).

[Note I said "modern vampire stories" as older vampire and monster stories are of immense fascination for me. They were, prior to Westerns, one of the earlier genres exploring the tension between individual freedom and social norms. It's just the modern incarnation of vampire stories, co-opted as skeletons for tales of racism or teen romance, that seem intellectually lacking.]

Like stories such as The Lord of the Flies, zombie stories begin with a scenario that explodes human constructs like society, law, civilization, and return us to a more primal, transactional world. The zombies are literal embodiments of humans in their most primal state, lower even than animals, as each zombie is concerned only with eating the flesh of other living creatures, human or otherwise. Unlike viruses that can mutate and kill themselves off, though, zombies don't eat one other.

In a clever bit of irony, the only way to kill a zombie is to permanently damage its brain, traditionally the locus of human thought, either by beheading the zombie or severely damaging its skull. This despite the fact that zombies are already brainless. Vampires, on the other hand, must be staked through the heart. This disparity in the location of their vulnerability is not coincidence. Vampires tend to be explorations of human desire, sexuality, and emotion, and the heart has always been the poetic locus of those feelings.

Where The Walking Dead and other zombie stories are most compelling is in those high pressure moments when an encounter with a zombie forces snap decisions on how to treat other humans in the vicinity. My feelings about the AMC TV show ebb and flow, but I'm most interested in the show when it adheres most closely to the graphic novel's relentless pace of these types of do-or-die encounters rather than conjuring absurd soap opera side plots that surpass the acting abilities of the cast.

[Many people have written that all they want to see on the TV show The Walking Dead are more zombies being killed, but what I suspect will set the show apart is not the volume of those encounters, most of which are depicted with subpar computer graphics, but the volume of such encounters that force humans to make snap moral judgements.]

Encountering a zombie typically ends with one of four results: death at the hand of the zombie, successful violence against the zombie, violence among the humans trying to escape the zombie, or some form of cooperation among the humans. The drama lies in whether humans retain the compassion that we expect of civilized humans or resort to primordial violence against each other, Lord of the Flies style. The horror at the heart of zombie stories is less the literal terror of being chased by flesh-eating humans (the ones in The Walking Dead are typical of the majority of movie zombies in that they stumble around slowly like drunks) but the idea that with a gentle nudge, the social conventions humanity has built over so many centuries will come toppling down.

What's unique about The Walking Dead (the graphic novel) among zombie stories is its length. Already over 100 issues, The Walking Dead is likely the longest zombie story ever told, and that opens the possibility for it to tell an even more epic story, that of the the rise of society and government. In such a ruthless world, how do humans group together, and what arrangements do they come up with to provide food and security, and then beyond that, perhaps even higher order human needs like love and sex. In this way, The Walking Dead might break down society and government only to retrace the rise of those institutions. By dint of its sheer duration, The Walking Dead has an opportunity to show the rise of human society.

Or perhaps its ultimate demise? Perhaps The Walking Dead is an epic depiction of mankind's long journey into extinction, with the zombie disease as a stand-in for any number of apocalyptic scenarios. I can't imagine either the graphic novel or the TV show embracing such a bleak conclusion, but it would be daring, wouldn't it?

The end of Season 2 was one example, when Rick gives a speech establishing himself as the dictator of the group, and anyone who isn't comfortable with that can go off on their own. That's a blueprint for any number of stories in human history, including the rise of fascism. The various other bands of people Rick and his crew encounter in Season 3, and presumably beyond, if they follow the graphic novel even roughly, will show us a variety of models for constructing society.

I Am Legend (the book, not the movie) took a similarly interesting arc over a shorter duration. It is about vampires, not zombies as many who watched the movie believe, but it has had an inordinate influence on the zombie genre. I don't want to spoil the novel with a plot summary (it has a killer of a twist ending), but it is a fascinating social fable, much more so than the movie, to no one's surprise.

Genre stories can be both mass entertainment and intellectually satisfying. My fingers are crossed that the TV show can live up to the thematic ambition of the graphic novel, even as it moves on to its third showrunner.

Audience as affordance: Twitter versus Facebook

Last November Matt Haughey of Metafilter fame wrote a great post at Medium that saw lots of pickup: Why I love Twitter and barely tolerate Facebook.

There’s no memory at Twitter: everything is fleeting. Though that concept may seem daunting to some (archivists, I feel your pain), it also means the content in my feed is an endless stream of new information, either comments on what is happening right now or thoughts about the future. One of the reasons I loved the Internet when I first discovered it in the mid-1990s was that it was a clean slate, a place that welcomed all regardless of your past as you wrote your new life story; where you’d only be judged on your words and your art and your photos going forward.

Facebook is mired in the past. My spouse resisted Facebook for many years and recently I got to watch over her shoulder as she signed up for an account. They asked her about her birth and where she grew up and what schools she attended, who her family might be. By the end of the process, she was asking me how this website figured out her entire social circles in high school and college. It was more than a little creepy, but that’s where her experience began.

I feel the same as the title of Haughey's post, and I agree with much of what he says, but my main reason for sharing his sentiment is different (or at least I think it is; Matt's a lot smarter than I am so it could be that I'm about to lay out a subset of his thesis).

Unlike Matt, I don't feel any pressure on Facebook to conform to any single consistent image of what people think I am or what I have been in the past. Many people who know me are in my Twitter follower graph also, and it's easy enough for anyone to associate my Twitter account with my real identity, so I don't think of it as a clean slate where I can be completely inconsistent with my identity elsewhere on the Internet.

I suspect many of my grade school friends who have just started tracking me again on Facebook after years of not having seen me might be surprised by my odd sense of humor, interests, and career choices, but it hasn't ever felt like a shackle. If anything I feel more pressure on Twitter to live up to the expectations of so many people I don't know who've chosen to follow me without any real-life connection.

That last point gets at what I find to be the primary difference between the two networks. To take a McLuhan-esque view of medium and message, the audience selection on each of those social networks is the primary affordance that shapes the content I create for them.

My Facebook graph is hundreds of people I've met through the years: immediate family and relatives, classmates from grade school through college, coworkers from various companies I've worked at. It's an emergent contact book more than anything else.

What it isn't, however, is an audience I can easily write for. It turns out that an assemblage of people you've met through the years is too diverse and random an assortment of people to treat as a coherent audience. What could I possibly write as a status update that would be interesting to my father, one of my coworkers from my first job out of college, the friend of a friend who met me at a pub crawl and friended me, and someone who followed me because of a blog post I wrote about technology?

This odd assortment of people all friended me on Facebook because they know me, and that doesn't feel like a natural audience for any content except random life updates, like relationship status changes, the birth of children, job changes, the occasional photo so people know what you look like now.

So unlike Haughey, what I struggle with about Facebook is not the constraint to be consistent with a single conception of myself, it's the struggle to target content to match multiple versions of myself. Judith Rich Harris' great book The Nurture Assumption was a revelation to me as it explained much of the childhood tension in my life. Harris' insight was that the influence of parents on their children's mental and emotional development paled in comparison to that of the child's peers.

More than that, though, Harris made explicit something that most of us do without ever being conscious of. That is, we play different versions of ourselves among different groups of people. Early in life, our first split in personality comes between school and home. We play one role with our parents, a different role with our classmates at school. It explains why we're often embarrassed when our friends would come over to our house and see how our parents interacted with us, because we felt it exposed a version of our personality that we tried to hide from our classmates when at school.

Later, in adult life, we have a version of ourselves that we play with our spouse or the person we're dating, another version of ourselves with our coworkers, yet another with our siblings and parents, and a different version of ourselves with our kids. Some people accumulate online peer groups, for example people they play online video games with, and that creates yet another identity.

My followers on Twitter, in contrast, are largely people I don't know. Most people who follow me on Twitter choose to do so only because they find my tweets interesting, or at least that's how I interpret a follow, especially when it's someone I've never heard of (yes, I'm aware this is reflective of some non-trivial level of self-regard, but then again I am a person who still writes a blog; I struggle all the time with the amount of self-absorption inherent in having such an online presence).

Since I interpret each new follower that way, I think of my followers as a set of people who wandered past my stage at the circus and decided to stop and watch. Each additional follower reinforces that what I was writing on Twitter before must be of some interest to them, and so it reinforces my urge to write more of the same.

Facebook, with people from all those groups as the audience, forces us to collapse all our representations into one. It's a reverse network effect as a publishing platform, where as your graph grows, the urge to publish diminishes. I see more noise in my news feed now, and it feels more and more futile for me to post anything worthy of the attention of this odd assemblage of people whose sole misfortune was meeting my corporal self.

As my Twitter follower count grows, I feel more incentive to raise my game and provide a consistent or increasing pace of high quality content. With Facebook, the more friends I add from more walks of life, the more paralyzed I feel about writing or posting anything.

Facebook does provide tools for you to solve this issue. You can divide your friends into different groups and post content to those specific subgroupings. In the opposite direction, you can filter stories of specific types and from specific people. Facebook also works hard to tune its algorithm for choosing which stories to show to whom to try to keep the signal to noise of the news feed high. And let's not forget that the Facebook graph, one that represents so many of the people I've met in real life, has its own value as it grows. It's become a valuable self-healing, self-growing address book.

But as a social interaction space, it feels like a party that's gotten too crowded. Organizing hundreds of people into groups is no fun, and I'm like most people in not even bothering (Twitter has lists, too, and I've never bothered putting my followers into any such lists). Algorithmic efforts to tune my News Feed aren't anywhere close to working judging by my recent visits. It feels like more work than it's worth to mute stories or particular people, the noise to signal ratio is so high now.

If there's one way I do feel something similar to what Haughey feels, it's in feeling more disembodied on Twitter. My existence on Twitter has always felt like it lived inside my head, in the twists and turns of my attention. My content on Twitter is ideas, links to articles of interest, mental debris. I feel more corporeal on Facebook because people post pictures of me and most of the people in my graph there have seen me in real life.  Because of that, I feel uncomfortable with the fact that my avatar on Twitter now is an actual picture of myself while my avatar on Facebook is a picture of a Theo Epstein Cubs jersey. It feels reversed.

The medium shapes the message. There's a reason that the photos I post to Instagram are so different from those I post to Flickr (and it's intimately related to why it will be harder than so many people think for Flickr to co-opt the ground that Instagram has claimed). There's a reason I check-in to more places on Foursquare than I do on Facebook, why I suspect Snapchat will carry vastly different content than something like WhatsApp.

It's why, when designing a social product today, it's so important to think through the flow by which new users build their graph. Facebook's suggested user algorithm constantly finds people it thinks I know in the real world, and so that's how my graph grows. Twitter, by contrast, is constantly suggesting users who they tell me are similar to those I've just followed. Because those suggestions are likely constructed from collaborative filtering across follow patterns, and because follow actions on Twitter tend to be based on the content that those people find interesting, what my Twitter graphs have become are really finely tuned content publishing graphs, in both directions.

I agree with Hunter Walk that it will be extremely difficult for Facebook to be a supergraph that just subsumes all subgraphs by sheer size. When Hunter speculates that "each generation needs a space to call their own," I suspect that what he might be honing in on is related not to generational shifts but several natural inflection points in a person's identity. When you start going to school, your personality splinters in two, between your self with parents and your self with your classmates. For some, the shift to high school serves as another transition.

The next major transition is leaving home for college. There's a reason so many people  become lifelong friends with people they meet in college but lose touch with friends from grade school or high school, because often our personalities and selves shift in huge ways until college, when we find a stable adult self.

After that, there are possible inflection points, but not ones that affect as many people. Jumping into a long-term relationship can be one (fertile cinematic ground for Judd Apatow), marriage is another for some people, and having children is yet another seismic event, though often it's less about personality than responsibility. When their kids leave the next, couples often have a moment for redefinition, which some seize. And of course, there's that moment when every woman or man morphs into that person who just doesn't give a damn anymore and just says whatever they think, becoming a sort of grumpy truthteller (think Maggie Smith's Dowager Countess in Downton Abbey or Judi Dench's M in the James Bond movies). 

Hunter Walk notes that a social graph has never lasted 10 years at scale. I think there have been too many factors in play to extrapolate too much from that pattern; a lot of that was just products gone bad, or new products gone better. But chief among challenges for all graphs that are rooted in identity-related content is the difficulty of surviving the leap across these major inflection points in our personalities and selves.

One last thought on this topic: while it may be tempting to use Twitter or Facebook as an authentication system for your new website or service to try to jumpstart the growth of your product's graph, first consider if that audience is the right one for your product. They're the right audience much less often than new services and apps think.

There is no one graph to rule them all because we have so many conceptions of ourselves. The exceptions to this rule of multiple selves tend to be people with asymmetric popularity (celebrities or internet luminaries who have many many more followers than people they follow) since they tend to build up the same audience on any network they join. Rather than sharing various sides of themselves, they are just reinforcing themselves on every medium to maintain the image which brings them great wealth and/or popularity.

I used to wonder why Superman ever bothered being humble reporter Clark Kent at all. With infinite energy and the ability to fight crime effectively 24/7 on a global basis, Superman should spend all his time flying around the world checking criminals and natural disasters. Any other use of his time is criminal under-leverage of his skills.

Now that I'm older, I suspect he might just be an introvert who simply needs psychic time away from the spotlight of being Superman to maintain his sanity. On Twitter, Superman has tens of millions of followers to whom he posts photos of his heroic exploits, favorited and retweeted thousands of times, but on Facebook, as Clark Kent, he has just a few hundred friends, and he posts poorly lit photos of himself out on dinner dates with Lois Lane. Each of those photos get about ten or twelve likes each, along with frequent comments from his mother: "Cutest couple ever!!!"

Computer vision

Today I spoke with someone who's an expert in computer vision. I didn't know anything about the state of that field, but one thing he told me was that computers can detect, with a high degree of accuracy, whether a figure they "see" is a woman or a man.

The two primary determinants are the length of the person's hair and the amount of skin exposed. Women have more of both, generally.

So the types of men that can trip up computer vision on this problem are men with long hair who show lots of flesh. So I'm thinking common false positives include Axl Rose, Fabio, and some members of the Hell's Angels?

The most interesting company in tech: Valve

You hear it in technology companies all the time, especially at firms that have survived from their days as a startup to become a bigger firm: we want to remain entrepreneurial. To feel like a startup. Nimble. A place that entrepreneurs want to work. A place for builders to build (a phrase Jeff Bezos always used to describe what he wanted Amazon to be as a company).

But it has always felt a bit disingenuous. You couldn't fully escape the top-down corporate imperative, though they might have wanted to provide the illusion that you had.

[The Google 20% idea in recent history sounded like the most promising attempt, perhaps a more practical evolution of a earlier incarnations, for example research divisions like Xerox PARC or Microsoft Research]

But then I read about Valve Software, and it sounded like a company was actually taking all this lip service to heart and pushing this concept to its most logical extreme. What Valve has implemented as their "corporate" structure makes them, to me, the most intriguing company in technology, if not in business.

Here is the Valve Employee Handbook (PDF) which had the Internet buzzing a while back. In summary: Valve is a completely flat company, with no hierarchy, and everyone has to find their own project or start their own project and recruit other employees to the cause. You have no boss, no one can tell you what to do. Some companies have occasional hackathons or hack weeks; Valve is run like a perpetual hackathon. Google had 20% time; Valve Software lets every employee have 100% time.

As the Valve Economist-In-Residence Yanis Varoufakis explains in this long and fascinating blog post, the way Valve is organized is an attempt to turn corporations into more responsive, efficient entities by introducing real market forces.

Interestingly, however, there is one last bastion of economic activity that proved remarkably resistant to the triumph of the market: firms, companies and, later, corporations. Think about it: market-societies, or capitalism, are synonymous with firms, companies, corporations. And yet, quite paradoxically, firms can be thought of as market-free zones. Within their realm, firms (like societies) allocate scarce resources (between different productive activities and processes). Nevertheless they do so by means of some non-price, more often than not hierarchical, mechanism!

The firm, in this view, operates outside the market; as an island within the market archipelago. Effectively, firms can be seen as oases of planning and command within the vast expanse of the market. In another sense, they are the last remaining vestiges of pre-capitalist organisation within… capitalism. In this context, the management structure that typifies Valve represents an interesting departure from this reality. As I shall be arguing below, Valve is trying to become a vestige of post-capitalist organisation within… capitalism. Is this a bridge too far? Perhaps. But the enterprise has already produced important insights that transcend the limits of the video game market.

Varoufakis refers to Valve as a spontaneous order firm. What replaces market price signals in the Valve model is individual time allocation. That is, every employee can freely choose how to spend their time, which project or projects to devote themselves to (the Google 20% time model taken to its extreme). Contrast that to the traditional corporation, with people's work allocation imposed from the top down, through the organizational hierarchy.

He concludes his blog post:

Whatever the future of Valve turns out like, one thing is for certain – and it so happens that it constitutes the reason why I am personally excited to be part of Valve: The current system of corporate governance is bunk. Capitalist corporations are on the way to certain extinction. Replete with hierarchies that are exceedingly wasteful of human talent and energies, intertwined with toxic finance, co-dependent with political structures that are losing democratic legitimacy fast, a form of post-capitalist, decentralised corporation will, sooner or later, emerge. The eradication of distribution and marginal costs, the capacity of producers to have direct access to billions of customers instantaneously, the advances of open source communities and mentalities, all these fascinating developments are bound to turn the autocratic Soviet-like megaliths of today into curiosities that students of political economy, business studies et al will marvel at in the future, just like school children marvel at dinosaur skeletons at the Natural History museum.

A few reactions...

I'm not sure why intrinsically a time allocation model would be superior to a market-price driven model, but at the very least it would only seem to have an advantage if the individuals were very smart. My hypothesis is not that this model is inherently superior, necessarily, but that it provides a critical recruiting edge which, in a market with constrained talent, is a massive advantage. That in turn provides Valve with the necessary star talent to make the time allocation model flywheel spin. The innovative games (e.g. Portal and Portal 2, Half-Life) and business models (Steam) Valve has produced may simply come from that superior labor pool.

Secondly, spontaneous order firms may work best in a business like Valve's, the videogame business, which, like the film business, is a hits driven business in which every incremental game creates its own new market. They compete in a far less zero-sum game market than, say, Apple does in mobile phones. When you think about the coordination it would take for Apple to shift itself to a twice a year release schedule for iPads and iPhones, coordinating its product development, supply chain, marketing, and retail efforts across hundreds of countries globally, the concept of them becoming a spontaneous order firm seems impossible.

Third, I can think of many companies where a model like this wouldn't work because in those companies, people who are more senior in the hierarchy genuinely believe in their own superiority over the folks beneath them on the org chart. They'd likely be exasperated by the day to day work decisions coming out of a spontaneous order firm. This is not an indictment of the Valve model, just a check on the realistic speed with which such a model might realistically spread to other companies.

Fourth, at all the tech companies I've worked at, which are all more traditionally hierarchical, I wouldn't characterize them as strict Coase-ian "islands of conscious power [corporation] floating in an ocean of unconscious co-operation [market]". Most tech companies I know are obsessed with gathering price signals from the marketplace, and that data permeates the firm.

My first job at Amazon consisted of assembling, every month, a 100+ page report called the Analytics Package which had metrics, external and internal, on every aspect of our business. It would take me almost the entire month to compile, I'd have to translate each of them into graphs Tufte would approve of, and then I'd write prose analysis to accompany each package to highlight the most interesting signals. I had to generate hard copies of this, and every month I'd make good friends with the copy repairman as one copier after another broke down under the load of cranking out hundreds and hundreds of pages of information. Nowadays, most startups I know of have reporting portals that can generate such data in beautiful manipulatable charts on demand.

Lastly, a model of time allocation might be more susceptible to the cult of charisma? In my experience charisma and competence or intelligence are not always tightly correlated. The most dangerous person in a company is the charismatic fool.

Within the confines of a more traditional firm, though, I suspect there's much to learn from the Valve Software experiment, and so I'm really curious to see how they evolve over the next five to ten years. How much larger can Valve grow with this business model? Is it a more efficient model for gathering price signals from customers? How well does the model hold up against bad eggs, like the mythical brilliant asshole or just someone incompetent?

Let's examine one issue in more detail.

In companies, politics often crop up. This is especially common as companies grow larger. Politics are damaging to companies because they can lead to local instead of global maximums (wins for a local fiefdom or manager instead of for the company as a whole).

My experience is that politics is rooted in perceived mismatches between a person's own sense of worth and external signals of that worth, from explicit signals like one's title and salary to softer signals like the time spent with the CEO.

When a company is small, the politics tend to be minimal since many startups either are completely flat or have little to no hierarchy, everyone gets lots of time with the CEO, and everyone's marginal contribution is massive and easy to detect. In a larger company, the pathways for recognition get clogged. Suddenly the CEO you used to see  all the time you only see once in a while. Hierarchy is put in place to try to minimize coordination costs, but suddenly everyone is judging their self-worth against where they're positioned within that org. chart which is inherently a ranking system generally tied to compensation.

Valve's model has the potential of upending those political costs. There's so little hierarchy that mismatches between internal evaluations and external markers of value or less common. Since the company's surplus is divided up each year based on contributions, theoretically compensation is more closely and efficiently tied to value generation rather than getting out of synch purely based on factors like seniority or tenure.

In the end, it may be that all of Silicon Valley, rather than Valve Software, is the most interesting spontaneous order unit to study. The common complaint about Silicon Valley is the competitive labor market, with the average tenure at less than 2 years. California does not look kindly on non-compete agreements, it's a labor-friendly state, and so people carry ideas with them from company to company all over the region. They are all putting the time allocation model to practice, and while it makes recruiting and retention a pain in the ass, it leads to the region being among the most generative business ecosystems in human history.

No Hall of Fame for you

No baseball players were elected to the Hall of Fame today. Jonah Keri has one of many refutations of the logic, or lack thereof, of the Hall of Fame voting body. I don't want to get into a debate about the silliness of the BBWAA, but I think it's illustrative, in the lightest way possible, of one of the more pernicious and annoying forces in this country: anti-intellectualism (and the musty moral codes it produces).

Nate Silver did a great job of exposing much of the anti-intellectual punditry that masked for mainstream political reporting this past election. We shall see if it has any lasting effect. The world he left behind, baseball, is still largely dominated by reporters who don't know even the most basic of mathematic or statistical principles. Thankfully the market forces that drive winning have pushed some smarter people into MLB front offices so at least the product on the field is run more rationally, but much of the smartest media coverage of sports still exists on the fringes.

One of the reasons I've gravitated towards the technology sector is that it has always seemed to me to be one of the most intellectual-friendly of industries. When people criticize Silicon Valley for not engaging more in politics, what they fail to understand is that most people in technology study politics and see a rigged and inefficient game, dominated by intellectual hostility. Why would they want to waste their life playing a game that's tilted against them?

The tech world may not be perfect, but it aspires to be a meritocracy, and when companies fail, they just cease to exist. There are no government bailouts (yes, that's you Wall Street) because you're too big to fail. I can't remember who posted a link to this article in my Twitter feed, but the first line is astonishing.

When I worked at high profile companies like Amazon and Hulu, I'd be upset when various reporters covered us in a lazy way. When reporters did not just legwork but critical thinking, it always comforted me, regardless of whether it was positive or negative coverage, because it showed a healthy press at work. A smart, independent, and dogged press is one of the core strengths of this country, like white blood cells against the spread of lies and half-truths. It's one reason I still derive a certain perverse pleasure whenever Gruber at Daring Fireball ridicules some of the silliest of Apple media coverage.

When anti-intellectualism is allowed to clog up our communication channels, it reduces the gains that we could be reaping from the Internet's single greatest strength, it's ability to transmit information cheaply and quickly.

How did I get off on this tangent from the baseball Hall of Fame vote? I think this Mucinex is making me loopy.